Bet the Mortgage: Week 4, 2014 NFL Best Bets

We haven’t been dominant so far, but after a 2013 season in which neither of us really seemed to figure things out until the last couple weeks, we’re off to a decent start. Both of us are above 50 percent and ahead in the bankroll – my week three was even pretty solid, a $1,605 profit that nudged me ahead of Tony for the season.

Here are the standings:

Here are our bets:

Tony:

This .500 game is starting to drive me a little nuts, but not really sure what to do to shake it. Logic says take a bunch of safe bets at -110 and ride a big week to bigger gains. But since when have I been a fan of logic in the sports book? Especially the imaginary one?

$1,000 – Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, +$105) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – I don’t love the Steelers, although LeVeon Bell and LaGarrette Blount seemed to have opened the season pretty chill. More importantly, the Bucs seem to have reverted to the Yucs with their drubbing at the hands of the Falcons last week (thanks for that, facing Julio Jones in two leagues). So I’ll cross my fingers (and toes) and hope the Steelers can cover a big spread.

$250 – Minnesota Vikings (+2.5, +110) vs Atlanta Falcons – Hunch time, and time to break a rule in my book about betting on the home team. Why? Teddy Bridgewater. Of course, if I was really confident, I’d go $2,500 instead of my lowest bet of the year…but we’re talking baby steps here.

$750 – New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs: Over 44.5, (-110) – The Chiefs have continued to run the ball well, even without Jamaal Charles. And the Patriots are still the Patriots, even if they’ve just beat up on weaker opponents so far.

$500 – Philadelphia Eagles (+205 moneyline) at San Francisco 49ers – I said in the preseason I didn’t think the 49ers had it, and I’m sticking with that. Meanwhile, Nick Foles has shown me he has at least some of the swagger I wasn’t so sure of last year. So let’s go big or go home here.

Andy:

There aren’t a lot of lines I like this week. Most of them feel about right. So I’m defaulting to mismatch games. The spreads are a bit higher than I’d like, but I’m going to count on the good teams showing up to play, getting leads and then pounding them into the ground. Might backfire, but it’s my best shot this week.

$500 – Indianapolis (-8.5, +110) vs Tennessee – The Titans looked okay in the opener but have faltered big time twice since, putting Jake Locker’s position in question. Meanwhile, the coaching staff seemed to take the shackles off Andrew Luck last week, costing me big time in a league where I traded him, but allowing Indy to explode in a win last week. If the Colts continue putting games on his shoulders, they should roll this week. The spread is 7.5 points on most sites, but 5dimes.eu has it at +110 for 8.5. I think they win by double digits.

$750 – Pittsburgh (-9, +105) vs Tampa Bay – Similar argument here. Pittsburgh’s been up and down, and they are missing some key defensive pieces, but Tampa can’t score anyway and last week’s effort was embarrassing. The spread on this could have gone up to 14 or 15 and I would have been on the Steelers here. As it is, I’ll take the +105 for going -9 (at 5dimes.edu again) versus the -110 for going 7.5 and hope that I’m right in predicting another double-digit spread.

$750 – San Diego (-14, +110) vs Jacksonville – Statistically it’s not as big a deal for east coast teams to fly west as it is for west coast teams to fly east, so this one feels a bit risky. But San Diego is on a roll. And Jacksonville has been so bad the last two-and-a-half games that the team has chosen this week to start the Blake Bortles era. San Diego looks like one of the league’s best teams right now and if they can get a lead on the rookie I think they make his debut a rough one.

$300 – Philadelphia (+205 moneyline) at San Francisco – I hate to make the same upset pick Tony does, but this line jumps out at me as a bit off. San Francisco is struggling due, among other things, to turnover on the defense and the Niners have yet to create any real rhythm on offense. The Eagles, on the other hand, are rolling. I’m really surprised it’s available at +205.

For our straight up picks for Week 4 click here.