Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2020

We’re always fascinated here at ZB HQ about what exactly it is Vegas knows that we don’t. Andy had a crappy weekend of gambling that was reminiscent of every year these writers have done this segment except for 2019. Tony had an okay run, but he was one point away from a solid profit when his “under 53” bet on the Chiefs/Texans game went over at 54.

Anyway, neither player picked many games right, but as oft is the case, Tony proved once again that it doesn’t matter as long as you get the right games right. He came out with a $100 profit after nailing the Jags’ upset against Indy.

$1,000 – Baltimore at Houston: Over 50, (-110) – If I was forced at gunpoint to pick a Super Bowl champion heading into week two, Baltimore would be my bet. The offense looked amazing last week. Granted, it was Cleveland, but Lamar Jackson picked up where he left off, during the regular season, anyway. The Texans drew a tough start this season, facing Kansas City and the Ravens right off the bat. I think this game drops them to 0-2, but they’ll score some points. With this line dropping from 54.5 to 50, all they’ll need is about 16, because Baltimore is going to put up at least 35.

$1,000 – San Francisco (-7, +100) at New York Jets – Le’Veon Bell is out. A bunch of wideouts are out. Sam Darnold looked out of sorts again last week. And the 49ers, while a bit beat up themselves, are still a Super Bowl caliber club and they’ll be angry coming off of last week’s upset loss. I’d rather have gotten this game at -4 earlier in the week, but even traveling from the west coast to the east coast, this game should be a rout.

$750 – Atlanta at Dallas: Under 54 (-110) – So … the Ravens/Texans game went down and this one went up? There will be some scoring in this game, but I think the Cowboys get out to a couple score lead relatively early and feed the ball to Zeke.

$500 – Cincinnati (+210 money line) at Cleveland – Neither of these teams looked like a playoff contender in week one, but the moods surrounding them feel completely different. The Browns are mired already in more controversy surrounding Odell Beckham Jr’s frustration and Baker Mayfield’s struggles, while the Bengals narrowly lost in Joe Burrow’s debut when an arguably phantom pass interference call kiboshed a late drive. It feels like the Bengals may be on the upswing. And the pressure is on Cleveland tonight. My guess is the Browns choke.

Tony:

$1,000 – Kansas City (-8.5, -110) at LA Chargers – I meant to put my bets in earlier this week, to take advantage of early lines that looked way off to me–like this one at KC (-5.5). It’s moved three points, but I still give a big edge to the Chiefs–especially knowing that the Chargers apparently are trying to take one of the strengths of Austin Ekeler (the check down) out of their offense.

$1,000 – Baltimore (-7, -105) at Houston – The Ravens line has also moved, although only one point in their favor. While may not have proven much by beating up on Cleveland last week, they look at least as good as last year, when they beat up the Texans 41-7 in Houston.  The Texans are also at best no better than last year–maybe a bit better in the run game, but without DeAndre Hopkins. Another 41-7 game isn’t out of the cards this year.

$1,000 – San Francisco (-7, +100) at NY Jets – Now that I look at it, all four games I’m taking this week would have been a lot better at opening. San Francisco is traveling east, and they’re banged up still — but they’re playing the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. Someone asked today if they should consider starting Jimmy Garoppolo today in dynasty — had to tell them, the 49ers may not throw the ball after the first quarter.

$1,000 – Cincinnati (+220 money line) at Cleveland – Go big or go home…again.  One more line I liked a lot better earlier in the week, I may have put $2500 on Cincinnati at +9 (-110), but I’m comfortable enough with the idea of the Bengals winning outright that I’ll still put a big bet on the money line.