Bet the Mortgage: Week 16, 2015 – Best Bets

It was a contest for about seven days, but week 15 put some separation between Andy and Tony. Andy finally hit all three of his larger bets in week 15, adding more than $4,000 to what had been a fast-dwindling cash pile. Tony, meanwhile, went for broke and got there, actually falling into hypothetical debt for the first time. Can he work his way back?

Here’s where we stand:

Andy

Week 15 was great – and well overdue. But that doesn’t leave me feeling good about week 16. This week’s games are tough – I don’t really feel all that good about any of them. So I’ll throw some money out there, but I’m backing off a bit. Now that my hypothetical bankroll has some heft to it again I don’t want to lose it all in one spot.

$1,500 – Jacksonville at New Orleans: Over 52, (-110) – The Saints are playing hard, but have one of the worst defenses in the league. They’ve given up 93 points in the last three games. The Jaguars are improving overall, but they’ve managed to lose two games during a three-game stretch when they’ve scored 107 points because the defense has given up 81 during that same stretch. In all likelihood I’ll be wrong, but all the numbers point toward this being an offensive show.

$1,250 – Washington at Philadelphia: Over 47.5 (-110) – Four of the last five Philadelphia games would have gone over this number. The Eagles have been scoring prolifically and giving up even more. Three of the last four Washington games have gone under 47.5, but this just feels like one of those games to me where each team should be scoring into the mid-20s with a late score winning it a distinct possibility.

$1,500 – Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Over 47 (-110) – Normally these are highly contested, must-watch late-season viewing, but the Ravens have been decimated by injury this season. I’m not sure the Steelers don’t come close to this number by themselves.

$300 – San Francisco at Detroit (money line +380) – The 49ers are not a good team right now, but they’ve saved their best for the NFC North this season, beating the Vikings and Bears and playing a tight game with Green Bay. Detroit is more talented and playing better, but the Lions are never unbeatable.

Tony

I’m not in a cast yet, but as I type this, a very large individual is hovering over me, brass knuckles in hand, with a very intimidating scowl on his face. I’m officially in debt to our fake sports book—which as any logical person knows, is time to hang them up. Of course, a logical person probably wouldn’t have started this in the first place. When in doubt, go big.

$3,000 – Carolina (-7.5, +120) at Atlanta – Even going on the road to Atlanta, not sure how the 14-0 Panthers only give 7.5 to the Falcons. Unless Vegas is counting on Cam Newton sitting the second half. Which might not be a bad bet, although I suspect that even resting a number of starters, the Panthers can win big. The bigger question might be whether Julio Jones (or Roddy White) get baited into fisticuffs with Josh Norman.

$3,000 – New England (-3.5, Even) at NY Jets – I’m not enthralled by this bet—the Jets have a lot more to play for, and the Patriots resorted to signing Steven Jackson this week—apparently LaDainian Tomlinson and Emmitt Smith had prior commitments. But even with Rex Ryan gone, I suspect there is no team in the NFL that Bill Belichick would get on video the deflation of the playoff chances of than the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets.

$4,000 – Denver at Cincinnati: Over 40.5 (-110) – The final matchup of the week might be determining whether I send Guido packing, or head into hiding. The Bengals have only been kept under 20 points twice this season, and have still scored 20 or more even with AJ McCarron at the helm. The Broncos have a strong defense, and have had their own offensive issues, but did put up 27 against the Steelers, and 30 against the Patriots just four weeks back with their own backup QB (in the cold/snow at home), so they can do it. There’s no reason they can’t combine for 41 here.

$500 – Cleveland (money line +545) at Kansas City – Outside of the Panthers, the Chiefs are the hottest team in the league, despite missing their biggest offensive star. After a 1-5 start, Chiefs fans aren’t just thinking playoffs—they’re thinking division title. But you know what else the Chiefs have?  Andy Reid as head coach. And as good as he can be, it just feels like the right time for the Chiefs to drop an egg. True, it might not be as easy this week as next week, when even more might be on the line against the Raiders. But it seems like the right time…