Bet the Mortgage: Week 15, 2015 – Best Bets

Well, at least it’s now a contest.

Andy took it in the shorts last week, losing his three big bets, but saving a little bit of face on his upset pick, but finishing down a whopping $3,700 for the week. Tony managed to go 3-1, but his one loss was his biggest bet, for a net gain of $267.

That pulls Tony within $1,000 of Andy–or rather drops Andy to within $1.000 of Tony–for the season.

And we’re back at it again…

Here is where we stand:

With the end of the season in sight, there’s some antsy-ness setting in. They look like they might be ready to ramp things up a notch as we pass the final quarter pole.

Andy

So much for that hot streak. Didn’t get the job done in week 14. Not much season left, so going balls out anyway.

$2,000 – Kansas City (-7.5, +105) at Baltimore – I could talk about how the five weeks prior to last week, the Chiefs had been scoring an average of 34 points per game or how they’ve won seven in a row. But really this boils down to Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen starting for the Ravens. Chiefs will win comfortably.

$1,500 – Seattle (-16, +105) vs Cleveland – Seattle’s offense has been even more prolific in recent weeks than Kansas City’s has. The Browns had a nice win last week against  San Francisco, but John Manziel is going to have to up his game considerably to even keep this one close.

$1,000 – Detroit at New Orleans: Over 50.5 – This one probably falls under Tony’s “do the opposite of the obvious” play, but neither team can play defense and both can score. Plus I am betting big on this game in daily and weekly fantasy. So go offense.

$300 – NY Giants (+195 money line) vs Carolina – To borrow a line from Christmas Vacation, if I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet, I could not be more surprised than I am seeing Carolina undefeated 14 weeks into the season. Frankly, if they get past this one, they are going 16-0. But they the Giants – who mostly suck – every once in awhile have a knack for jumping up and stealing a game like this.

Tony

As soon as I saw that Andy and I had $4k riding on the Cardinals last week, I told him two things would happen—the Vikings would still lose, but they would lose by 3 points. I should have tripled down on that statement—it would have made an ok week an awesome week.

$2,500 – New York Jets (-3.5, -105) at Dallas Cowboys – Yes, Dallas is at home. Yes, I may very well be relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fantasy realm. But at the same time, yes, Matt Cassel is still starting for Dallas.

$1,500 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, +105) at St. Louis Rams – I’m a little surprised here…Tampa Bay has been playing fairly well—especially for a team that was 2-14 last year. They’re under .500, but still have a chance—slight as it may be—of grabbing that final playoff spot in the NFC. The Rams, meanwhile, are 5-8—still technically alive, but it’s an ugly 5-8 that includes multiple accusations of dirty play, quarterback benchings, quarterbacks not being pulled for concussions, and a five game losing streak that was finally broken last week against a Lions team that is already making plans for January, which once again does not include football.

$1,000 – Carolina Panthers at New York Giants: Over 48 (-110) – The Panthers are obviously playing at a very high level, but the Giants are no slouches—well, ok, offensively they’re not. They’ve put up 20 points in all but two games this season, so they should be able to put together somewhere between 17-24 points against the Panthers tough defense, especially at home. Meanwhile the Panthers haven’t scored lower than 27 points since week 2, and haven’t been under 20 all year.

$250 – Tennessee Titans (moneyline +875) at New England – Not that I really expect it to happen, but given where I’m at in the standings, I’ll take a chance. If I was going to do a different moneyline upset, it’d be the Browns (+900) at Seattle—but I have more faith in Marcus Mariota than I do Johnny Manziel.