Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2015 – Best Bets

Well, it wasn’t as good as the last couple weeks, but week 12 wasn’t a total loss. … it’s sad that we’ve fallen to describing losing weeks in this manner, but … between the two of us, we have less than one of our original hypothetical bankrolls remaining.

Both Andy and Tony went 2-2. Andy lost less than $50. Tony lost a bit more. With just five weeks left, do either of them have a chance to get back into the black?

Here’s where they stand:

And here we go with week 13… should be another wild ride.

Andy:

Well, my short stretch of winning weeks has ended, but I kept the amount to a minimum this time. I’m still, actually, within striking distance of having a good season. I’m betting heavily on road teams this week, which makes me a bit nervous. But … it’s pretend money. I’ll slowly start ramping up a bit this week. There are only five weeks left. Go big or go home with your hypothetical bankroll, no?

$1,500 – Houston (+3, even) at Buffalo – You just never know what you are going to get from the Bills in any given week. Meanwhile, the Texans have figured something out. The defense has allowed just 35 points in the last four games, with a road win at Cincinnati part of a four game win streak. I think the Texans have a shot to finish 4-1 and make the playoffs, but that has to start here. I think it will – they win the game outright.

$1,500 – Seattle (pick ‘em, -110) at Minnesota – The Vikings are 8-3, but the list of wins so far is not terribly impressive. I think we’re going to find out over the next few weeks that this team is improving but still maybe a year away from being a real contender. Meanwhile, Seattle has pretty much proven it’s not going to be the team it has been the last couple years. But they’re coming off a big win against Pittsburgh and they are desperate for a win if they want to stay in the playoff race. I think they win this game comfortably.

$1,000 – Jacksonville (+2.5, even) at Tennessee – The Jags had won three of four before a disappointing home loss last week to San Diego. I’m starting to believe Jacksonville is at least closing in on being a decent team. Tennessee feels a bit further away in their turnaround efforts. Go Jags.

$300 – San Francisco (+270 money line) at Chicago – Ok, the Bears have been more competitive than expected. And the 49ers are playing with Blaine Gabbert. I find it hard to believe Chicago is favored by seven points over anyone right now. They’re still bad. Do I think San Francisco wins? Hmm. Maybe not. But at +270 I’ll play my hunch that the Bears are getting more credit than they deserve.

Tony

Despite being 5-3 in the last two weeks, I’m sitting here at under $3k remaining for the season—it’s tempting to push more than all in, starting betting $10k a week in an effort to get not just back to even, but up to the original goal of doubling our season starting point of $10k. Because I’m sure that would work just as well as it does on the blackjack table…

$1,000 – Jacksonville (+2.5, Even) at Tennessee – Getting only two and a half points on the road indicates that many think the Jags are the better team. I agree, to the point that I’m not sure I even need the points—but I’ve got better options for the money line.

$800 – Baltimore (+4, -110) at Miami – At the end of the day, even as bad as their record has been, the Ravens have had a lot of close games. And after a couple week surge after the Joe Philbin firing, the Dolphins may be packing it in — and somehow I don’t know that Ndomiwhatever Suh’s “inspirational” speech about how he’ll be there in four or five years and many of his teammates won’t … yeah, I wonder how much they regret that contract.

$1,500 – Carolina at New Orleans: Over 49.5 (-110) – Yes, the Saints were held without a touchdown last week, and have only 20 points in their last two games. Those were both on the road, though—they haven’t scored fewer than 26 points at home, other than Week 2. Assuming they can get to at least 21 points, very good candidate for the over.

$500 – San Diego (+170 money line) vs. Denver – The hype around Brock Osweiler continues to swell … and I’m just not sure that I believe it 100 percent. Yes, the Chargers have not been good at all, but Philip Rivers still has some gas in the tank. For +170, I’ll take a chance.