Bet the Mortgage: Week 11, 2019

Both Andy and Tony rebounded from hideous week nine performances to show nice returns in week 10. Tony split his bets, but again proved true the mantra that you don’t have to win all your bets, just the right ones. Both nailed the Ravens’ big win, Tony with his biggest outlay of the year, and they both predicted the Seahawks’ Monday night triumph. But… can they follow it up?

And here we go again …

Andy:

$2,000 – Dallas (-3, -125) at Detroit – It looks like there is a possibility that Matt Stafford plays this week, which makes this a tiny bit riskier. But Dallas is the better team. They’ll be smarting coming off a game they should have won Sunday night against Minnesota. And it’s kind of a must-win, as the ‘Boys are facing a tougher schedule than Philadelphia the rest of the way. This is one week in which Dallas should be able to pick up a game, with their division rivals facing the Patriots.

$1,500 – New England (-3.5, -108) at Philadelphia – As mentioned, the Eagles have an easier schedule down the stretch. But I’m not convinced they are as good a team as Dallas. They get a chance to prove otherwise this week against the AFC’s prohibitive favorite New England. I don’t think the Eagles can win. The Pats have been licking their wounds from an ass-kicking taken from Baltimore. And Philly’s secondary is porous. Pats by a lot.

$1,500 – New Orleans at Tampa Bay: Over 50 (-104) – Sure, the Saints got beat up last week by an inferior Falcons squad. I think there’s an argument to be made that it was less about New Orleans not showing up and more about the team being a bit overrated. This team has given up 24 or more points in six of nine games this season, including three of four road games. The exception was a win against monstrously inconsistent Jacksonville. Tampa’s problems include defense and turnovers, but not scoring points. I could see a scenario where the Bucs actually upset the Saints straight-up. I’m not willing to bet on that, but I will wager that Tampa can put up enough to help this game get beyond the total.

$800 – Chicago (+250 money line) at Los Angeles Rams – The Bears defense has disappointed this season and Mitch Trubisky has been just short of abysmal much of the year. Who has been nearly as bad? Jared Goff. Brandin Cooks will miss another game, as will RT Rob Havenstein, leaving a couple openings for the Bears’ defense to shut down the Rams. Far-fetched? Perhaps, but not out of the question.

Tony:

$2,000 – New England (-3.5, -108) over Philadelphia – New England went into a bye week after suffering their first loss of the season…in what was an ugly loss to the Ravens. Nothing like giving Belichick, Brady & company an extra week to stew over that one…oh, hey, and let’s not forget the last time the Eagles faced the Patriots…I’m sure that no one in New England has thought about that either…

$1,000 – NY Jets (+1.5, -107) at Washington – I can’t believe I’m putting money on this game, but even at home, I don’t see Washington coming out on top of this one.  Since it’s not likely to be a great moneyline play, I’ll give myself a little bit of padding.

$1,000 – San Francisco (-10.5, -102) vs Arizona – This might be a bit of a long shot—the money is still coming in on Arizona, and despite the 49ers great record, they’re not great against the spread (5-4) while the Cardinals have been decent (7-3).  But having come down from -14, this feels like solid value.

$1,000 – Chicago (+245 moneyline) over LA Rams – Wouldn’t be shocked if Andy and I have the same moneyline game again—this battle between two struggling teams coaches that were supposed to be offensive geniuses should be interesting, in the way that passing a car crash is interesting on the freeway.  Which quarterback is more likely to dribble some down his leg in the big Sunday Night matchup?  I have enough faith in the Bears defense to take a solid +245.