Bet the Mortgage: Week 10, 2019

Well …

That sucked the big one.

After a couple months of halfway solid picking, Andy and Tony both took it in the shorts in week 9. The duo combined to go 1-7 and they lost almost everything they had built up the first eight weeks.

That was humbling.

Here are the standings:

And here are the bets:

Andy: Well, last week was rough, but easy come, easy go. I’m still on something of a roll. Or at least that’s what I’m going to tell myself.

$1,500 – Baltimore (-10, -110) at Cincinnati – New rookie QB for the Bengals, check. Cincinnati unable to play any kind of defense except, oddly enough, playing decent coverage against TEs, check. Ravens rounding in to form as a well-balanced offense with perhaps the league’s most exciting young player, check. This could be a bit of a letdown game for Baltimore, coming off the big win against New England. But … I have a hunch it won’t be.

$1,250 – Buffalo (+3, +100) at Cleveland – The Browns are 0-3 at home, 2-6 straight-up, 2-6 against the spread, inept on offense, especially in the passing game, and they can’t stop the run. They are right up there with Chicago as the league’s most disappointing teams. The Bills are 3-0 on the road, 3-0 on the road against the spread, and they are running the ball well. They’re not great, but the point-spread seems backward. It’ll be ugly, old-school football, but the Bills will win this game.

$1,000 – Arizona at Tampa Bay: Over 52 (-110) – Two air-it-out offenses, two bad defenses, a lot of fantasy capital on my teams … if this game doesn’t go over the total, I’m in trouble this week.

$750 – Seattle (+248 money line) at San Francisco – The 49ers are on the right path, but they haven’t played a lot of great teams. The Seahawks are balanced and resilient, and Russell Wilson could be the league’s MVP. Seattle deals the Niners their first loss.

Tony:

$3,500 – Baltimore (-10.5, -109) over Cincinnati – Can you say trap game?  I can…but I’m pushing in a ton of chips anyway.  How can Baltimore only be a 10 to 10.5 point favorite against this Bengals team, when Indianapolis is giving 11 to the Dolphins?

$1,500 – New Orleans (-14, +105) over Atlanta – Normally I wouldn’t touch a two TD game in division, especially between heated rivals—but I think Dan Quinn has unfortunately lost the team, and I’m not sure that even Matt Ryan coming back and throwing (hopefully) a couple of garbage time TDs is going to keep this close. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in their last six, and Atlanta is 1-5. No reason to think that changes, even with this big number.

$1,000 – Arizona @ Tampa Bay: Under 52.5 (-110) – Tampa Bay has hit the over in six straight games, but I don’t think Arizona’s offense will help them get this high.

$1,000 – Seattle over San Francisco (money line, +240) – I certainly believe in San Francisco more now than I did earlier this season, but Seattle is too good to be paying out +240 on the money line—there’s no reason Seattle can’t show up and punch back.