So what I’ve been doing wrong all season is betting on point spreads and money lines and not spending enough time 
betting over/unders.
Well, it’s obviously not that simple, but I largely got it right in the conference championship games – though I would have gotten the spread wrong on Carolina/Arizona. I really thought the Cardinals were at least going to put up a better fight.
Nonetheless, two big bets ran my season total back into the black, albeit only slightly. Here are the standings:
| Starting $$ | Conf record | Conf wk $$ | Playoff record | Current $$ | |
| Andy | $6,472 | 2-0 | +$3,722 | 4-5-1 | $10,194 |
I have a hunch on this game, which I’ll share later in picks, but I’m not 100 percent sure that hunch is based on what I really think will happen or what I’d like to see happen. Doesn’t matter for the sake of this post, however. My leaning in this game is based on the idea that this will be a fundamentally sound, defense-dominated game. Here goes:
$2,000 – Denver (+5.5) vs Carolina – Old Man Manning has been playing in the NFL since the year after I graduated from college. I’ve loved watching him for most of his tenure in the league and he’s won me a few fantasy football championships over the years. It’s hard to see him having a ton left for this game though. If he goes out in a blaze of glory, it’ll be because the defense really, really helped him out. I think the Broncos, at a minimum, keep this game close. The spread has hovered around 4.5 and 5.5. That feels about right. It’ll be a TD game, regardless of the winner.
$3,000 – Denver vs Carolina: Under 45 – I may be giving away a portion of my hunch here. If the Broncos are going to keep this game close, it’s going to be a low scoring contest. If this game gets into the 50s, I will be wrong on all counts. The Broncos do have some skill talent, but I don’t think Manning can keep up with Cam Newton in a shootout. Given that, and the fact that both teams sport great defenses, I see 45 as too high for this game.
We’ll have something of an accountability post next week. Enjoy the game. Thank you for reading.
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In some bowl games, you can find both a team that is highly motivated and a team that could be poised for a letdown. In these types of matchups, bettors can usually throw the statistics out the window.