Bet the Mortgage: Week 9, 2018

Andy followed his good week with … a bad one. And why exactly did he think Arizona and San Francisco would score points? With that bet, he deserves his fate. Tony hit on a couple of +100 bets, so his 2-2 looks pretty good.

Here are the standings after week eight.

And here are the bets:

Andy

$1,000 – Kansas City (-8, -110) at Cleveland – The Browns are actually 5-3 against the spread this season and I think the coaching change ultimately will do the team well. It’s a bit unfortunate for them that the first game under new leadership comes against a Chiefs team that has scored 38, 42, 27and 40 points in going 3-1 on the road so far. One week isn’t going to provide enough time for the Browns to put together enough to keep this one close.

$800 – Houston (+1.5, -110) at Denver – On rare occasion, I’m actually right when I feel like I find a game where the point spread just doesn’t fit. Last week it was when Baltimore, inexplicably, was a favorite at Carolina. This week I’m looking at the Texans as an underdog against Denver and wondering “what up?” The Texans have won five in a row after a 0-3 start. The offense exploded last week, admittedly against a dying Dolphins squad, but still – it was the second-straight double-digit win. The Broncos have lost five of six and just cut the guy they thought might replace Case Keenum as the starting QB in the near future. And they traded long-time WR Demaryius Thomas – to the Texans, who will use the motivated WR to replace the injured Will Fuller. I think the line should be flipped on this one.

$750 – Washington (-1.5, -110) vs Atlanta – I have no doubt I will regret this pick. Washington is among the hardest teams in the league to figure out the last few years. However, this team is 5-2, including winning four of five as an underdog. The defense has been keeping this team relevant, having given up 21 or fewer points in six of seven games. In a season like the current one, that’s impressive. The Falcons got off to a rough start and that’s a bad sign for them, as they played five of their last six at home. They need to steal a couple on the road to stay relevant this season. I’m not sure they have the defense to make that happen.

$400 – Tennessee (+230 money line) at Dallas – I don’t like many of the money lines this week. So, it’s kind of a coin flip. I went here because … do we really believe that trading for Amari Cooper has made Dallas a powerhouse? The line went from -4 to -6.5 in the course of a few days. The result, to me, actually depends more on which Titans team shows up. The Tennessee people expected to see this season is, I think, better than Dallas, which has proven mediocre.

Tony

$1,500 – Kansas City (-10, +110) at Cleveland – Sometimes a team with a new coach will step up and find a way to win an amazing game that they shouldn’t be able to. And sometimes the team fires a coach heading into a game against possibly the best offense in the NFL. Could still get the Chiefs at -8, but…why?

$1,000 – Carolina (-7, +115) vs Tampa Bay – The 7 points is a pretty big number, but for the +115, I’ll take a shot.

$1,000 – Atlanta at Washington: Over 48 (-110) – Don’t really know why, but this seems like a good bet. So does the Chargers/Seahawks at the same number.

$500 – Detroit (+200 money line) at Minnesota – Only way I can’t lose betting on the home team…if the Vikings win, I’m happy.  If they lost, my imaginary sports betting account gets paid.