Bet the Mortgage: Week 9, 2017

Week eight was middle of the road. We both went 2-2, which for one of us is a disappointment and the other is a relief. Tony, who has mostly been winning this year, has to be disappointed to barely add enough to his winnings to provide an evening’s worth of Blackjack at the local casino — especially given that his bravado in taking the Patriots and giving an extra point cost him a 3-1 week.

Easy come, easy go, I guess.

Andy, on the other hand, has been digging himself out of the muck most of the season. And, thus, winning $736 and cutting into his seasonal debt can only be classified as a win.

Here are the standings:

And here are our bets for week nine.

Tony: Second half of the season, time to start ratcheting things up with my imaginary money.

$1,500 – New Orleans (-7, -105) vs Tampa Bay – I’m shocked at how much of a mess Tampa Bay has been this year, and amazingly enough, they’re worse against the spread (1-5-1) than in real life. The Saints aren’t great against the spread, but they’re above .500 (4-3), and they’re playing at home.

$1,000 –  Denver Broncos (+8, -105) at Philadelphia – I’m disappointed I can’t find anyone paying a +105 on this one. I don’t think the change to Brock Osweiler gives Denver a chance to win (otherwise I’d go moneyline +345), but I’m also not sure that the Eagles have faced a defense like Denver’s yet, which I think can keep it close. I also am not sure exactly why the Eagles traded for Jay Ajayi given how their season has been going—that could be a negative shot of chemistry that might hurt them in the long run.

$1,000 – Arizona at San Francisco: Under 39.5 (-110) – A classic do the opposite game, other than the fact that apparently 57% of people are picking the over. The final of this game should be 14-10, with the more interesting numbers being attendance and rating (bet the under on both).  So take the over.

$800 –  Atlanta (+105) at Carolina – There’s not a lot on the moneyline that interests me this week, so I’m going with possibly the mildest upset of them all.  The Panthers have to be wondering what kind of message their management is sending with trading Kevlin Benjamin—and I don’t know that I think Devin Funchess will get the same kind of help from the likes of Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel.

Andy: It’s been one of those years so far. We’re reaching the halfway point and I feel like I know these teams no better than I did heading into week one. So, here’s to flipping a coin again.

$1,000 – Cincinnati (+6, -110) at Jacksonville – I buy into the Jaguars. I think they are fun to watch, at least on defense, and I think this team is going to be for real soon. Here’s my problem with them. They are playing like a young team that doesn’t quite remember every week that they have to show up. There’s a pattern here. They go to London and crush the Ravens. Then they go to New York and lose to the Jets. They go to Pittsburgh and humble the Steelers, then lose at home the Rams. Now, the Rams and Jets have proven better than the experts expected heading into 2017. But for a great team, those are winnable games. Jacksonville is coming off of a bye, so maybe they’ll break the pattern. But this is a proud Cincinnati team that is not good, but is not crappy either. The Jags’ last game was a whitewashing of the Colts. If the pattern holds, the Bengals will give them a good game.

$1,000 – Seattle (-7.5, +100) vs Washington – The Seahawks defense has been solid all year. I feel like last week the offense found itself. This is more of a gut feeling thing, but I think Washington gets smoked.

$1,000 – Kansas City (+1, -110) at Dallas – Go big or go home, no? It looks like Ezekiel Elliott will actually be suspended. And the Cowboys, so far, have simply not been as good as the Chiefs this season, even when their allegedly behaviorally challenged running back has been playing. So, why wouldn’t Kansas City be better than Dallas if the Cowboys’ best offensive weapon is sidelined?

$400 – Green Bay (+115 money line) vs Detroit – Some might consider this cheating a bit, as this line seems to be sneaking back toward the Packers being a favorite. But several online casinos at Oddsshark.com still have Green Bay on the plus side of the money line. Maybe it’s only me, but … Detroit hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire the last month. The Packers are at home. Brett Hundley now has a game under his belt and the team had a bye to start getting healthy. And Lambeau Field has been a bad place for the Lions. It’s a coin flip in my eyes, but I’m thinking the Green-and-Gold starts saving its season right here.