Bet the Mortgage: Week 9, 2015 – Best Bets

Yes, the schneid has been broken.

Okay, so it was just a .500 week and Andy ended up just $170 ahead for the week. Who cares – for the first time in several weeks, he didn’t have to worry about mythical broken legs. The bank roll went back up. He brought slightly less shame than normal upon his family.

And then there was Tony.

A couple weeks ago, his mythical bankroll was in the black. In the last two weeks, he’s lost nearly half of his original $10,000, however, with a 0-3-1 week eight causing his biggest tumble.

Can he rebound?

Here are the standings:

Neither of us have a lot of momentum right now, but we’re not out until we’re out – and let’s face it, if we go out, we’ll just go borrow another mythical chunk of cash and keep trying to win it back… so here we go with week nine:

Andy

I still can’t say I’m picking with a lot of confidence right now, but it was nice to actually end up in the positive column for the first time in a while. There are a couple games this week I feel pretty good about. So here goes:

$750 – Philadelphia (-3, +105) at Dallas – Doesn’t seem to matter who the non-Romo QB is – Weeden, Cassel, whoever is next – the Cowboys don’t look good on offense. I think the Eagles are ridiculously flawed, but they probably smell some blood here and they’ll attack in an effort to avenge the week two loss to Dallas at home. Does desperation sink in? Maybe. Another loss would put Dallas in the NFC East basement by two games and would make an already steep climb even steeper. But I just can’t see how they win this one.

$600 – Jacksonville (+7, -110) at NY Jets – Jacksonville has a chance to win the AFC South. While that’s a signal of an embarrassingly bad division more than a good team, the Jags have been playing better of late. The Jets likely win. But Ryan Fitzpatrick is dinged. I suspect they’ll play a somewhat conservative game, relying on Chris Ivory, if possible. That screams for a close game more than a blowout. I would not be stunned if the Jags win this one straight up.

$600 – Denver (-5, -110) at Indianapolis – Peyton Manning finally looked good last week against Green Bay. He now returns to a climate-controlled venue where he was magnificent for so many years. The Broncos’ defense is playing out of this world, having shut down Aaron Rodgers like few others. And the Colts are a mess. Even taking a road favorite, this feels like a 14 point game, not a five-point spread.

$500 – Carolina (+125 money line) vs Green Bay – I wanted to take a stab at Washington +875 against New England or Cleveland +590 against Cincinnati … but then I came across this game. Don’t get me wrong – I’m not a huge believer in the Panthers. But they are undefeated. And the Packers just got destroyed by a great defense in Denver. It’s possible Green Bay silences the doubters, avenges last week’s lost and knocks Carolina from the ranks of the unbeaten. Just as likely is that the Panthers are for real and their defense gives Aaron Rodgers a similar beating to the one he took last week. If they do, Carolina wins.

Tony

Great, I managed to space out getting my bets in yesterday, and miss the Bengals/Browns game, which was probably a ripe target, even at Cincinnati (-12). It’s like going to Vegas and forgetting about the time zone change, and missing the early games.

But here are four more games, which will probably kill my mythical bankroll.

$1,500 – New Orleans Saints (-8, -110) over Tennessee Titans – I wouldn’t have made this bet even a week ago, probably, but the Titans are reeling (and Mike Mularky is unlikely to deliver the Dan Campbell like motivation–the big difference being that Miami was under performing, and Tennessee just doesn’t have the talent). Add in a hot Drew Brees, playing at home, and I’m not going to say he throws another seven touchdowns…probably just six.

$1,500 – Denver Broncos (-5, -110) at Indianapolis Colts – Once again, this bet is more coming from Denver’s defense (and Andrew Luck), rather than Peyton Manning. Surprised this is only -5, actually.

$1,500 – Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (over 42, -110) – The Jets managed 20 points last week, even with Geno Smith at the helm, and have only been held under 20 points once.  The Jets defense is good, and the Jags aren’t necessarily, but they have put up 31 points in each of their last three games. Getting over 42 shouldn’t be too hard here.

$500 – Carolina (+125 money line) vs Green Bay – I hate to say it, but…just read Andy’s summary above. It’s pretty much spot on.