Bet the Mortgage: Week 9, 2014 NFL Best Bets

Few times in my betting life have I more grossly misjudged a game than I did Green Bay’s Sunday night loss to New Orleans. The upset pick cost me $1,000 off my bankroll and left me more than a bit flummoxed. It shouldn’t though – I need to do a better job of recognizing that when I feel so strongly that I have one over on Vegas, the actual results usually show that it’s the other way around.

Nonetheless, in week eight Tony and I both continued pushing our bankrolls upward, even with the big loss. Tony had a tremendous week, going 3-1 and taking a giant leap toward his goal of doubling his original hypothetical bankroll. My winnings were much smaller, but when you leave with more than you started with it’s never a bad week.

Here are the standings:

Andy: After getting semi-humbled by the numbers last week I’m taking it down a notch. But I’m still feeling pretty decent about some of these numbers – I think there’s some money to be made betting underdogs this week.

$750 – Carolina (-2.5, +108) vs New Orleans – The Saints were fantastic in dumping the Pack on Sunday, but they were at home and desperate. They’re never as good on the road. And the Panthers have been more competitive than I originally expected. It’s a Thursday game, which I normally try to stay away from, but Cam and Co. seem to be on a bit of a roll right now and I’m thinking the Cats can pull this one off. 5dimes.eu has it at +2.5 for Carolina at +108, up from most sites, where it’s -115 for a +3.

$750 – Indianapolis (-3.5, even) at NY Giants – The Colts got stomped by Pittsburgh last week, but overall have been on a nice roll. The Giants teased for a bit earlier in the season, but have been getting stomped recently. I’ll probably blow this one, but I’m counting on Andrew Luck to not let last week’s debacle to happen twice in a row.

$750 – Pittsburgh (Pick ‘em, even) vs Baltimore – Call me gullible, but I think Pittsburgh may be starting to find itself. I’m guessing Baltimore doesn’t utilize the same strategy on defense that Indy did, but I do think there’s a pretty good chance Ben Roethlisberger and his newfound weapons continue their roll.

$400 – Arizona (moneyline +155) at Dallas – Washington exposed the Cowboys Monday night. Dallas is better than expected, but I still don’t buy them as a contender for a deep playoff run. Arizona, on the other hand, I am starting to take seriously. I think the Cardinals will leave this game with a huge leg up over a possible NFC playoff opponent.

Tony: Games this week are bad. As in, I really didn’t want to post bets bad. Teams on bye, big spreads. Not a good week. But here we go…

$750 – Arizona (+4, -110) at Dallas – Do you have faith in Brandon Weeden? Yeah, me either.

$750 – Kansas City (-10.5, +115) vs Kansas City – The Chiefs have several offensive weapons they can break out to screw my fantasy teams this weekend–Knile Davis, Travis Kelce, Dwayne Bowe. You name it. The Jets…well, they’re just offensive.

$500 – Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Over 48 (-110) – As uneven as they’ve played, the Ravens have only scored under 23 points twice this season. The Steelers have been just as uneven, and have had more low points, but they’ve put up 81 in their last two. One should hit 30, and the game should be close.

$200 – Oakland (moneyline, +1050) vs Seattle – Even I don’t really think Seattle loses this one. Hell, I took them in our Survivor pool (probably a decent reason to really make this bet).  But for a +1,050 payout?  I’ll throw $200 on that long shot, just in case.