Bet the Mortgage: Week 9, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Whenever we go to Vegas during the football season, Andy likes to get out there by Thursday afternoon. He likes to make sure he can get at least one bet in on whatever game is happening that night. He likes to get his losing started early.

This week is no different, except we’re not really in Vegas and our bankrolls are mythical–he’s gotta have that Thursday night bet, so I can’t wait until Sunday morning to post this.

Last week, he actually didn’t suck that bad–he hit half of his bets, and he made money in the process, moving back into the black for the season.

Of course, an okay week for him just set him further behind me, as I continued my hot streak by hitting three of four, and banking almost $1,500 in the process. I’m up to a .500 record for the season on bets, but ahead by almost 35% in (imaginary) cash money.

This week’s bets below…tell us in the comments where we (Andy) got it wrong, and where we (me) got it right…

Andy’s Bets:

I feel like I’m playing it kind of conservative this week, but there aren’t a lot of numbers on the board that I really like. I’ve been on a rough run of late, so until I kind of figure it out a bit, I need to avoid Guido and keep it within my quickly shrinking budget.

$350 – Cincinnati (-3, -105) at Miami – The Bengals are starting to roll. The Dolphins aren’t. I’m a little surprised this number isn’t bigger, but really the only variation is that the three points can be gotten at -105, -110 or -115. I’ll take the best of those three, please.

$300 – New Orleans at New York Jets: Over 45.5 (-110) – The Saints have hit the over in three of four. The Jets have hit the over in five of six. Tony might suggest this as a classic “bet the opposite of the trend” but I think the Saints get two-thirds of the way to the number by themselves.

$250 – New England (-7, +110) vs Pittsburgh – I don’t feel at all confident in this pick. But it did look like New England sort of started to figure things out on offense at the end of the Miami game last week. This game is available at -110 for 6.5, but I’ll give the extra half point and take the +110 at fivedimes.eu. It probably means I’ll push, but it’s a risk worth taking when the bankroll needs some refreshing.

$150 – Buffalo (Moneyline +140) vs Kansas City – This isn’t a game I feel particularly confident in, but there aren’t a lot of upsets on the slate this week, in my opinion. I do think eventually the Chiefs are going to slip up and drop a deuce sooner or later. This could be that game. Kansas City failed to beat the spread in winning its last two home games and, while they’ve been a good road team thus far in 2013, they’re due for a stumble. And Buffalo, while only 2-2 at home, has been in all four of those contests. If they can stay close and get a ball to bounce their way late, why not?

Tony’s Bets:

I don’t have the Broncos over to bet–does that mean I’m off the hook with the gambling gods when they come back next week if I don’t trust them to keep rolling?  Time will tell…

$250 – Pittsburgh at New England: Over 43.5 (-110)  – This one is a bit of a hunch…a couple of offenses that have seemed stagnant, but could breakout at any time. But also a couple of defenses that seem poised for a breakdown week. Hopefully this will be the week it all comes together. 24-21 shouldn’t be too much to ask.

$300 – New Orleans (-7, +115) at New York Jets – Forget the over/under and doing the opposite. The Jets have been better than I expected this season, but it’s time for the wheels to fall off. And the Saints continue to seemingly reinforce the value of a good head coach. And quarterback. And competent defense. I wonder if anyone in Minnesota is paying attention? I’ll give the extra point and take the +115 payout on this one.

$250 – Baltimore (-3, +105) vs Pittsburgh – They managed to play close with Jason Campbell last week. I’m not sure I buy that it can happen again, even if the Ravens aren’t as good as the Chiefs. Plus another game where I can buy my way to a positive payout, this time with only half a point.

$150 – Houston (Moneyline +115) vs Indianapolis – It’s not a sexy high payout pick, but I’m not feeling so good on any high payout upsets this week. This one feels right, though. The Colts will be learning to adjust without Reggie Wayne. The Texans will be learning to adjust without Matt Schaub. Advantage: The Texans at home.