Bet the Mortgage: Week 8, 2018

Andy had a good week. Maybe he’s found a secret? He’s basically breaking even. Can he pull ahead? Tony’s plugging along, a little below the break-even slot. They’re still kind of a joke when it comes to “betting the mortgage,” but maybe there is an inkling of competence there?

Here are the standings after week seven.

And the bets:

Andy’s Bets:

$1,000 – Carolina (+2, -110) vs Baltimore – Wait, what? If the standard home-field advantage is -3, why is a relatively hot Carolina team giving two points to the Ravens? Baltimore has been alright, but doesn’t warrant a five-point swing on the spread in a road game against a team that is no worse than its equal. It’s not like Baltimore is elite. This one confuses me.

$800 – San Francisco at Arizona: Over 42.5 – I do get this one. Neither team is good. When they played a couple weeks ago, the 49ers ran up and down the field against the Cardinals but managed to find a way to lose. And the Cardinals 10 days ago just crapped the entire field against Denver. But Mike McCoy is gone. David Johnson may finally be freed. And CJ Beathard has looked solid in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo. I think there will be more points scored in this one than expected.

$1,000 – Cincinnati (-4.5, -110) vs Tampa Bay – This number started at six and came down. That surprises me a bit. The Bucs can’t stop the pass. The Bengals have two good WR, a promising TE and a couple RBs who can catch out of the backfield. Plus, they’re smarting from taking a beating from KC. I think this one is a rout.

$300 – Denver (+450 money line) at Kansas City – Ok. This is admittedly a long-shot. But it’s a division rivalry game and the Broncos have to be fuming from giving up the match in Denver a couple weeks back. It wouldn’t be the most unlikely upset of the season… plus there aren’t any other upsets with big enough numbers that I like. So … WTF.

Tony’s Bets:

Actually heading to Vegas this week, so I might throw these bets down for real…moving the decimal a couple spots to the right, at least.

$1,000 – Houston (-7.5, +100) vs Miami – Get this show rolling on Thursday night…I’ll be in rown by then, and amazingly enough it appears that Ceasar’s book is the best payout on the board, at +100 for this game. I wouldn’t have ever picked this way in Week 2, but considering the Dolphins are so desperate they might be forced to play Devante Parker this week…could be ugly.

$1,000 – Cleveland (+8.5, -110) at Pittsburgh – Yes, it’s in Pittsburgh. Yes, it’s the Browns. But these two teams opened the season with a tie, and the Browns have managed three more overtime games since then. I’m not ready to go moneyline for the win, but I can’t figure out why this has moved from +7 to +8.5 (even 9.5 in at least one online book).

$1,000 – New England (-15, +105) vs Buffalo – Maybe this is a trap game, and I normally hate double digit lines…but there’s no way this one ends well for the Bills, is there?

$500 –  Green Bay (+365 moneyline) at LA Rams – Not a lot of what I would consider good value on the moneylines this week, so I’ll take a shot on Aaron Rodgers playing well in his home state, and the Rams maybe having a brief letdown while they look ahead to next week’s Saints matchup.