Bet the Mortgage: Week 8, 2017

Tony’s dominating picks in the first half of the season and he’s dominating bets, as well.

He didn’t have a great week – just 2-2, resulting in a $139 loss for the week – but that puts him well in front of Andy, whose good week five appears to have been a mirage.

So it goes. Here are the standings so far.

And here are the picks.

Tony

$1,000 – New England (-8.5, +110) over LA Chargers – Most sites are at 7 or 7.5, but I found a few (probably online) books with higher payouts for an extra point. LA isn’t good to begin with, and New England’s defense has … slightly improved. Add in that the Chargers have to go cross country, and I’ll take the extra point and the +110 payout.

$1,000 – Indianapolis (+10.5, -105) at Cincinnati – I don’t get this line at all—opening at 10 was bad enough, but getting bigger? What has Cincinnati done to allow anyone to have confidence that they could beat any other team in the league (other than the Browns, who they beat 31-7) by more than 10 points? And yes, the Colts barely beat those same Browns in week 3 (one week before Cincinnati), but that doesn’t mean that the Bengals will have just an easy of a time with them. I think the Bengals win, but not by double digits.

$750 – San Francisco at Philadelphia: Under 47 (-110) – This opened at 47.5, and at most books has come down by a full point, but I think it should be down more. The 49ers travel East and aren’t good, and the Eagles are going to be without LT Jason Peters, meaning their offense could take a hit. It may still get close, but I don’t think it makes it over.

$500 – Houston (+215 money line) over Seattle – I almost took Houston in our weekly picks, but decided to stick with the Seachickens at home—but as a +215 payout, I’ll take a shot at the Texans, who are playing significantly better ball with Deshaun Watson at QB. I don’t think it will be a high scoring affair, but I think the Texans might be able to steal one, to at least make things interesting atop the AFC South.

Andy – $%^ & this. Here we go again.

$1,000 – Minnesota (-9.5, -110) vs Cleveland at London – The local radio sports talk folks already have this chalked up as a win for the Vikings. Thus, it has a bit of a “wait til the other shoe drops” trap game to me. However, … the problem is that Cleveland has no QB and it has been playing incredibly poorly on offense – and last week they lost LT Joe Thomas, probably the best tackle in the game. Now the Vikings’ intense pass rush should have a field day. They may only need to score 10 points to cover this spread.

$800 – Chicago (+9, -110) at New Orleans – I’m not sure I understand this one. The money line opened at around +435 for the Bears, -588 for the Saints, but has narrowed to +310 and -420. The spread started at Bears +7.5 and it’s grown to +9. Isn’t that contradictory? Anyway, the Bears are 5-2 against the spread and are hanging in almost every game they play. The Saints will prevail, but I think it’ll be closer than expected, with Mitch Trubisky giving Bears fans a hint of why the team thought he had potential.

$600 – Miami (+3, -105) at Baltimore – I hate betting on the Thursday night game. I’m making an exception. Miami has a better record than Baltimore. The Dolphins have a better road record than the Ravens’ home record. Miami is 2-1against the spread on the road. Joe Flacco looks old. The Ravens’ offense is pathetic. And Jay Cutler is out with a rib injury. Many thought Matt Moore should have started in place of Ryan Tannehill all season. I tend to put myself in this camp and I expect Miami to mobilize behind him and get a win.

+300 – Houston (+215) at Seattle – The last four games, Houston has scored 33, 34, 57 and 33 points for an average of 39 points per game. They won’t score that much off Seattle, but they will get to the Seahawks defense more than most. The Seahawks can be gashed at times, having given up 33 to Tennessee a month ago. It’s more the eye test here. Since Deshaun Watson took over at QB, this team seems to have some purpose and vigor. I’m betting it continues.