Bet the Mortgage: Week 8, 2014 NFL Best Bets

Well, after a couple big weeks, Tony was probably due for a downer. He had backed off a bit, citing tough lines, and it was probably good he did. It wasn’t a disastrous week, but the 1-3 mark dropped him behind me for the season.

I’ve been slowly and steadily going up more than down. Last week a 3-1 accelerated the pace. Here are the standings for the season.

Here are our bets for week 8.

Andy: There are some weird numbers this week. At -2.5, the return for betting on Tampa is -115, but add a half a point to -3 and it jumps to +105. You can get Seattle ranging anywhere from -4.5 to -6, but do you want them? And how the hell is New Orleans favored over Green Bay? The Packers are on a roll and built more for turf than their home grass – and the Saints are struggling big time.

Vegas feels a bit schizophrenic this week. But since we’re contractually obligated to do this bit each week, here goes:

$1,000 – New England (-7, +120) vs Chicago – I don’t love the Patriots, but they’re on a roll. I don’t hate the Bears, but they’re not. It *should* add up to a fairly convincing win. It’ll probably blow up on me, but … this is a tough week. Gotta take what looks like it’s out there.

$750 – Indianapolis (-3, -110) at Pittsburgh – The Steelers made a nice comeback against Houston last week, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is no Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is firing on all cylinders offensively AND the team has a defense playing well. I think Pittsburgh is pretty ordinary and I think they get exposed in this game.

$750 – San Diego at Denver: Over 51 (-102) – Earlier in the week the Broncos were around a 6.5 point favorite. I’d have taken that in a heartbeat. The line jumped to 9 over the course of a few days. I’m less interested in that – the Chargers have reason to be angry after giving one away at home against Kansas City last week and they have been a tough beat for Denver the last couple years. But I do think this game goes high scoring, even though it is on Thursday night – I hate that we keep losing these big division games to the Thursday night dud complex. Nonetheless, I’m taking the over.

$1,000 – Green Bay (moneyline +108) at New Orleans – Ok, this isn’t much of an upset, but still – the Saints are favored over the Packers? I wish I was in Vegas for this one. The Packers are on a roll. They’ve got a passing game built for the indoor fast track. The Saints can’t defend anyone right now. I couldn’t sprint to the sports book cashiers fast enough to get money down on this one. So watch New Orleans pitch the shutout.

Tony: So in the one category I seem to be doing well in, last week was the first truly bad week I remember this year for betting, with a 1-3 record and dropping around $1,400—fortunately I had backed off some, since it looked like a rough week.

This week? More of the same, as tough lines, road favorites, injuries and benchings have me a little gun shy on where to go.

$750 – Buffalo Bills (+2.5, +105) at NY Jets – This could easily be my moneyline pick this week at +135, but I’m so uncomfortable taking a bad Bills team that I’ll take the 2.5 points, even though I think they win it straight up. The Jets are that bad, and I think they’re only getting worse. By the end of the year, they might get to face the decision as to whether or not to burn another high draft pick on a quarterback. But hey, they got Percy Harvin (another reason for taking the 2.5 points).

$500 – Cleveland Browns (-7.5, +120) vs. Oakland Raiders – Yes, the Browns just got whipped, and Bobby Hoyer or Brian Hoying or whatever his name is has completed less than 50% of his passes the last two games. But the Raiders are bad, traveling east, and possibly missing a couple of key defenders—and another bad start by Hoyer could mean Johnny Football in the second half—if I can make a fraction of what he earned in college here, I’ll take it.

$500 – Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 41.5 (-110) – Time to dust off an old classic strategy, that ironically started (in real Vegas) with my hometown Vikings and taking an over bet that looked like it was a lost cause in a similar down season. There’s no logical way that these two teams should combine to score 42 points—I could see several scenarios where they fail to break 20. So of course I’ll take the over.

$250 – Washington (moneyline: +425) at Dallas Cowboys – Yes, it’s a weak bet. But it’s also the biggest moneyline gamble of the week. Should it happen? Of course not. There’s not a single thing in this game that should be going Washington’s way. But it seems like more fun that throwing $250 at the Panthers (+195) taking out the Seahawks, who seem to have hit a wall as of late—even though I did almost do that instead.

For straight up picks for week 8, click here.