Bet the Mortgage: Week 8, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Like so many real weekends in Vegas, we’re stumbling down to the sports book late on Sunday morning to actually put our bets in shortly before kickoff. Actually, it’s just me–Andy dutifully hit the sports book as soon as the plane landed, and has been sitting there with betting slips in hand since Wednesday morning, rocking back and forth like a junkie who needs a hit. My official explanation for my lateness? Waiting for the lines to settle, because I pretty much don’t like any of them. In reality?  A much less exciting excuse related to work and not actually being in Vegas. Two problems that should be easily resolved.

Last week’s betting likely had Andy thinking about taking the same trip I took a few weeks back to avoid large men in suits that might want to break legs. He did manage to hit his upset of the week, though, which meant that despite going 1-3, he only actually lost $125. Unfortunately this means he is back to playing with his own money this week.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars cost me a whopping $1 in real life, as well as my upset pick here, but my big money bet on Peyton Manning and the Broncos, combined with some faith in the Bengals led to a big week despite being 2-2.

Now things start getting interesting…ten weeks left, and we’ve proven that this gap can grow and shrink at the drop of a hat. Presumably most teams have shown what they really are at this point, so the lines should be getting tougher. And this week has some big lines to work with as well…

Andy’s Bets:

$250 – New England (-7, +110) vs Miami – This hasn’t been a very good season for the Patriots’ vaunted offense just yet, but it has to click at some point. 5dimes.eu’s willingness to put a +110 line on New England winning by a touchdown leads me to believe it’s going to happen this week.

$300 – Green Bay (-10, +110) at Minnesota – Jarrett Boykin? Myles White? Brandon Bostick? I don’t care if the Packers have to call Donald Driver and James Lofton out of retirement. Aaron Rodgers is going to throw them the ball and, against the Vikings’ porous secondary, they are going to catch it. Greg Jennings? Jerome Simpson? Kyle Rudolph? I don’t care if the Vikings call Randy Moss and Cris Carter out of retirement. Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel and most recently Josh Freeman all seem completely incapable of getting them the ball. Most sites seem to have this number at 8.5, but 5dimes.eu has Green Bay giving 10 at +110 and I think that could go up even further.

$350 – Seattle (-11.5, +105) at St. Louis – The Seahawks aren’t as good on the road as they are at home, but let’s face it. New Rams starter Kellen Clemens is an inspiration for mediocre QBs everywhere. He’s got a career 51.8 completion percentage, a 7-to-13 career TD-to-INT ratio and a 62.2 QB rating. Seattle’s defense should be licking its chops, as it may cover the spread by itself. I might even put money on the baseball Cardinals outscoring football’s Rams this weekend in the World Series. Unless St. Louis’ defense pitches a shutout the Rams aren’t winning.

$300 – Upset of the week: New York Jets (Moneyline +230) at Cincinnati – Looks like I’m going road heavy this week. Cincinnati is the better team. Save for dropping a growler on the road in Cleveland and a bad fourth quarter against Chicago, the Bengals could be undefeated. That said, they’re not blowing anyone out. And the Jets are surprisingly plucky this year with a defense that is for real and a rookie QB who is confident and competent, something the team has not had for awhile. Is this something I truly think is going to happen? I’m not sure. I think for sure the Jets cover. And if they can keep it close enough, they’ll probably draw a weird 15-yard penalty at the end that allows Nick Folk to once again hit a game winning FG with time expiring. You heard it here first.

Tony’s Bets:

$200 – Cincinnati (-5, -105) vs. NY Jets – There aren’t really any lines I love this week, at least that don’t have pretty big minus payouts, and virtually none that have the positive payouts I’ve been playing the last couple of weeks. So where do I put my money? I guess I go a little more conservative and stick with teams that have helped me in recent weeks. While they haven’t put up any huge weeks, they’ve been playing solid all year, and they seem to have been moving more towards Giovanni Bernard, which can only help their outlook. The Jets, meanwhile, have been better than I expected, but have alternated wins and losses each week, and are coming off a big win against the Patriots, which seems like it could easily be time for the Jets to stumble again.

$300 – Buffalo @ New Orleans: (Over 48, -110) – Another of my famous tricks? When you don’t like the lines, take some overs. It’s not like one of my tricks could be keep your money in your pocket and go home ahead for once, right? We’ve got a bit to finish here. Originally this bet was going to be New England/Miami over 45, but as I dug into the research, that one lost some luster. I was going to keep it on the board, though, and put up the Bills/Saints game as an example of the reason why I hate the lines so much this week. But in looking at that game, I realized that they Bills haven’t scored under 20 points all season, playing some solid defenses (even with someone named Thaddeus starting at QB). The Saints, meanwhile, have scored 30+ twice, haven’t scored under 26 since week 2, and have put up 31 and 38 in their last two home games–and they’re coming off a bye. So I upped the bet and switched to this game. Expect a 17-9 snoozefest.

$300 – Washington @ Denver: (Over 59, -110) – I’ve said I’ll ride the Broncos over train until they prove me wrong, and I’ve learned not to upset the gambling gods by breaking a promise. But this week scares me. The oddsmakers have started to catch up with the Broncos, and Peyton Manning’s got a gimpy ankle. They haven’t put up less than 33 all season, but this could be the week. On the flip side, the Redskins finally put up big numbers last week against the Bears, but only put up 16 the week before against Dallas–not exactly a model of consistency. So I keep it on the board, but back off on my bet some just in case.

$100 – Upset of the week: Cleveland (+295) @ Kansas City  – When you hate the lines this much, odds are good finding an upset you love won’t be easy either. I contemplated violating my don’t put money on the home team rule and throwing this $100 away on the Vikings, who are in prime position for an upset (which would probably only further complicate their QB situation, and make the likelihood of landing one of the top 2 quarterbacks in the draft even tougher), but the Chiefs have been playing with fire for the last couple of weeks. The Browns are pretty terrible, and starting Jason Campbell isn’t going to help their chances. But Andy Reid still wants to put the game squarely in the hands of Alex Smith, rather than just letting him hand off to Jamaal Charles, who despite being one of the best backs in the league so far, has not surpassed 22 carries in a game. The Chiefs are ripe for a let down, and there’s no reason it couldn’t be this week.