Bet the Mortgage: Week 7, 2017

Easy come easy go.

The one week stretch of strong bets dissipated fast. Andy and Tony both took it in the shorts in week six.

Here are the standings:

Andy: Well, that was fun while it lasted. Back to the drawing board. It seems every time I think I’ve figured this season out … well, that’s only happened once. And look where that got me.

$800 – Tennessee (-6, -110) at Cleveland – I’ve been a defender of the Browns to some degree. And I think they are making some solid moves. But they clearly are missing on the QB thing and they clearly have some ways to go yet. Until they actually win one, I’ve decided they’re one of the teams I’ll look to bet against.

$800 – Denver (+1, -110) at L.A. Chargers – Vegas might have to stop giving the Chargers the -3 home-team-advantage boost. They’re not getting it. The Broncos took it on the chin last week against an ugly Giants team, but this is a bigger game and they’ll be angry and up for it. The Chargers aren’t horrible, but Denver is better.

$800 – Seattle (-4, -110) at NY Giants – So are the Giants for real? Have they figured it out? Did they only have to lose all their receivers to figure out how to win? New York should struggle passing the ball with second-string wideouts against a solid pass defense and I don’t think they’ll be able to run it well enough to take advantage of where the defense is vulnerable. It’ll be low-scoring, it’ll be a little ugly but the Seahawks should cover.

$500 – Green Bay (+175 money line) vs New Orleans – Don’t take this the wrong way. … Well, actually, take it however you want. I don’t wish injuries on any player and that includes Aaron Rodgers. That said, it’s kind of entertaining watching Packers fans, who’ve had nearly a quarter-century of Hall of Fame QB play from him and Brett Favre, panic about what’s going to happen without Rodgers under center. Brett Hundley is inexperienced, but he’s been in the system for a few years now. Some people (fools, but nonetheless…) were actually calling for him to replace Rodgers during his mini-slump last year. He’s not Rodgers, but I do think he’ll be competent. He looked horrible last week against Minnesota, but that was as much a great defense and a beat up offensive line as anything. The Saints’ defense is nowhere near as good as the Vikings’ defense is. Green Bay is at home. They still have plenty of offensive weapons. Could New Orleans win? Sure. Is it ridiculous the level to which this game is already almost being forfeited by the experts? Equally yes.

Tony:

Know what happens when you forget to put your bets in?  You go big in the late games, I guess. First time I think in 3-4 years of doing this that I’ve missed altogether. So I’ll go with $1,000 on each of my late game bets–chasing the dragon, so to speak.

$1,000 – Pittsburgh (-4, -105) vs Cincinnati – This opened at -4, and is still at -4, which I find hard to believe. I guess it has gone from -120 to -105 (in one sports book, at least), so I’ll take that.

$1,000 – Dallas (-6.5, -110) vs San Francisco – The 49ers have been playing teams tighter than expected this year, but they’re trying out a rookie at QB. He looked ok in his first action, but let’s see how he does when teams know he’s coming.

$1,000 – Atlanta at New England: Over 56.5, (-110) – This opened at 53.5, which is asinine. I’m not even sure that 56.5 is smart. Which means it will be a 17-13 game.

$1,000 – Washington (+185 moneyline) over Philadelphia – I’ll even go big here. I don’t know that I really think Washington will win, but it’s one of the better payouts in the late games (even better than NY Giants over Seattle), and I’ve seen nothing in the NFC East that makes me really think that the Eagles are as dominant as they’ve looked so far.