Bet the Mortgage: Week 7, 2014 NFL Best Bets

After both of us scored big time in week five, Tony continued his hot streak, posting his second straight 3-1 week and winning $2,441 in week six. That gives him a two week total of $5,891 in winnings and puts him well in front for the season.

My week wasn’t bad – I came out ahead – but split at 2-2, winning $264. This is a heady place to be, particularly considering how poorly we performed in this space last year. Here are the standings so far:

So here are our bets.

Andy: While I certainly wouldn’t mind multiple weeks of winning four figures I’ll happily take my slow and steady approach. A few hundred here and a few hundred there mixed in with weeks like the $1,764 I pocketed in week five would put me where I’m hoping to be by the end of the season. That said, it gets tempting to ramp it up a bit playing with house money. And while I think some of the games this weekend will be kind of boring, I do think there are a couple opportunities in the numbers. Here goes:

$1,500 – Seattle (-7.5, +120) at St. Louis – I’m going back to trusty 5dimes.eu for this line. Most have it between 6.5 and 7 for the more traditional -110 payout. I think the Rams will be deflated after giving up a big lead on Monday against San Francisco. I also think Seattle is going to be angry after last week’s loss to Dallas at home – they better be angry or they’re not the same team that won the Super Bowl in 2013 and that’d be bad for a couple side bets I made before the season. I think this all adds up to a comfortable win for the Seahawks.

$1,000 – Baltimore (-7.5, +120) – This one again offered the opportunity to give the extra half point in exchange for moving the payoff from -105 to +120. I can’t figure out why this spread isn’t bigger. Atlanta’s big play passing attack was stymied at home on turf by a bad offensive line and several drops. Now they go on the road to a grass field against a QB coming off a huge game in Joe Flacco. I’m not sure it would have made my list if the spread had been 10, but I would have taken the Ravens to cover anyway.

$1,000 – Arizona (-3.5, -105) at Oakland – The Raiders are playing better – they took San Diego to the limit last week. But the Cardinals are playing as well as anyone in the NFC. This could be a trap game, but if Arizona is truly a contender for a deep playoff run, this would be a game they have to win.

$400 – Jacksonville (+205 Moneyline) vs Cleveland – The Browns are on a roll. And I like their direction. But this feels to me like one of those games where young, not-fully-developed teams can get caught by surprise. I’m not necessarily expecting it to happen, but I’ll take that chance at a +205.

Tony: Well, it’s week 7 and I’m pushing $17,000 – and getting close to my goal of doubling my bankroll after a couple of big weeks. And, the way the fantasy season is going, I wish I was really flying to Vegas and trying this—it’d be more productive. I’m actually backing down a bit this week, partly because for once I’m sending bets early rather than late, and partly because I just don’t love any games this week.

$1,000 – Denver Broncos (-7, +110) vs. San Francisco 49ers – Surprised this line is as close as it is, given that Denver is in Peyton Manning’s wheel house—home game, national television, non-playoff game. The 49ers have struggled this year, while the Broncos once again seem to be using the season as a tune up for bigger things.

$1,000 – Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, +120) at St. Louis Rams – Being on the road gives me a little cause for concern—but being in St. Louis takes care of that. The Super Bowl Champs are coming off a loss at home to the Cowboys, and some people are starting to wonder if they’ve got another run in them. I, for one, don’t actually think they do. But that won’t stop them from beating up on the Rams.

$1,000 – Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: Over 44.5 (-110) – A game featuring an offense that has averaged  29.4 points in their last five games (all wins),  and a team that has put up 34 and 41 in their wins, and given up 22+ in all three losses. Surprised this one isn’t a lot closer to 50, actually.

$500 – New Orleans Saints (+125 Moneyline) at Detroit Lions – This isn’t as sexy of an upset pick as Carolina (+270) or the NY Giants (+240) would be, but sometimes slow and steady wins the race. Yes, New Orleans isn’t the same on the road—but they’re still indoors this week. And their opponent doesn’t have at least their biggest star, nor much of a defensive backfield. Yes, they nearly pitched a shutout in their last game—but against the Vikings right now, that’s not really that impressive. Saints all the way.

For our straight up picks for week 7, click here.