Bet the Mortgage: Week 7, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Well, I’m back in country after dodging those suits, and based on last week, I should be debt free…for at least a week.

I nailed all but my upset pick last week, raking an impressive $1,215 for the week, which puts me in the black and in the lead for the season. That, thanks to Andy’s rough 0-4 week, that cost him $900. He’s still hanging on to a profit for the season, but I’ve had burger’s in Vegas that would put him in the red.

This week, Andy will try to get back on track with his lengthy explanations starting tonight, while I stick with my short game thoughts on Sunday games.

Andy’s Bets:

$200 – Arizona (+7, Even) vs Seattle – I’ve made no secret of my belief that Seattle is a top two NFC team this season. But save for a 58-0 drubbing toward the end of last season, games between these two divisional foes are typically hard fought and close. This number is going back and forth between six and seven points. Bovada has it an even bet at seven. Arizona has won six of the last seven at home in this series, including the last two. Seattle will snap that streak and win the game, but the Cardinals will keep it within a touchdown.

$300 – Baltimore (+1, +105) at Pittsburgh – Okay, the Steelers come off of their bye week and beat the Jets and all is right with the world? I don’t think New York is good and I don’t think Pittsburgh is either. The Ravens have won the last three regular season games at Heinz Field. They’re rebuilt this season, but they’ve continued playing relatively solid defense, holding two opponents to fewer than 10 points and last week allowing just 19 to a generally potent Green Bay offense. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, lost its recently acquired left tackle for the season and also is dealing with injuries on a defense that, prior to the Jets game, had allowed 94 points in three games. I don’t see a lot of fireworks in this one, but do think the Ravens emerge with a big road win.

$300 – New England (-4, -110) at New York Jets – Rex Ryan likes to consider this a rivalry, but since the Jets won two of three matchups between 2010 and 2011, the Patriots have won five straight, three of them handily. New York stuck with New England in week two, staying within a field goal. But Tom Brady has produced 30 points two of the last three weeks and the offense appears to be gaining momentum. They won’t reach that mark against what is a legitimately solid Jets defense, but New England will figure out Geno Smith and stymie an offense that lacks legitimate playmakers. It’ll be a comfortable win for the Pats.

$300 – Upset of the Week: Dallas (+125) at Philadelphia – Hmm. Philly’s pass defense has been ravaged by some of the better offenses out there. Dallas has a well-rounded offense that might get Miles Austin back. DeMarco Murray likely misses the game, but he’s not THAT good anyway and Joseph Randle should be able to competently fill the role. The Eagles will score plenty, but Dallas appears to be the best of a mediocre lot in the NFC East this season. If they want to maintain any illusion that they are anything more than the best of a bad division, this is a game they must have. Some sites have this at +115, but you can get +125 at 5dimes.eu.

Tony’s Bets:

$200 – Philadelphia (-3, +110) vs. Dallas – Based on that last write up, Andy seems to have finally figured out that when I pick my bets, I shop around for the best odds I get. Unfortunately, he thinks the Cowboys are going to head into Philly and beat possibly the best QB Chip Kelly has for his offense. In this case, I could take the Eagles -2.5 at -125, or give an extra half a point and take a +110. Since I think the Cowboys defense is suffering, and they will be without DeMarco Murray, I think the Eagles win by more than 3, so why not take the extra cash?

$200 – Cincinnati (+1, +115) at Detroit – Looking back at this one, I’m not really sure why I took it. I think the Bengals are the better team, but this year’s Lions haven’t proven to be quite as willing to choke games away over the last few weeks. And it’s in Detroit. But, if there’s one thing I’ve learned in Vegas, it’s to go with your gut. Except when you shouldn’t.

$500 – Denver at Indianapolis: Over 56 (-110) – I said I was going to ride it until the Broncos don’t cover. No reason to think this game won’t go over 60 as well.

$150 – Upset of the Week: Jacksonville (+275) vs San Diego – I would feel a lot more confident in this one if Norv Turner was still in San Diego–in that case, I would have considered betting $1k on it. But even without Norv, the Chargers are coming off a big upset of the Colts, making this a potential trap game, and are traveling far East, which often hurts those West Coast teams. Add in that the Jaguars are looking…slightly less pathetic since getting Justin Blackmon back on the field, and you’ve got the makings of a $563 payday–enough to make up for the probably 13-10 Broncos/Colts final.

To see our picks for the week, click here.