Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2018

So, it’s been a rough beginning to the season. Bet the Mortgage has been a bit of an afterthought at times as we’ve rushed around dealing with real lives. Finally got around to doing the calculations and, yes, the results look like it’s been an afterthought.

But we’re still in the mix. There’s still time to turn this around and make these picks something you’ll want to bring to Vegas and use as your betting guide. Here’s where we are at heading into week six.

Andy’s picks:

$800 – Pittsburgh (+2, -110) at Cincinnati – In 1990, Cincinnati took its only lead in the overall series with Pittsburgh at 21-20. The Steelers have won 42 of the last 56 games between the two teams, including 12 of 15 played during the Andy Dalton era. Does it mean anything Sunday? Probably not. But the Steelers seem to have a knack for getting into the Bengals’ collective heads. I’m not sure the Bengals are a true 4-1 team and I’m betting that dominance continues.

$800 – Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 52.5 (-110) – If I’m wrong on the first bet, I’ll probably be wrong on this one too, because the Steelers are going to score some points. This is predicated on Pittsburgh keeping Dalton under wraps.

$1,000 – Los Angeles Rams (-7, +100) at Denver – The Broncos were hideous last week coming off of a disappointing Monday night loss to Kansas City. The Rams offense gets to pick on the beat up secondary. It’s in Denver, so it’s a bit risky, but in Goff, Gurley and McVay I am starting to trust.

$400 – Buffalo (+400 money line) at Houston – There aren’t a lot of upset picks I like this week so I’ll throw up my hands and go with one of the largest money lines. I actually think the Texans are closing in on taking off, but I wouldn’t be gobsmacked to see the Bills steel another one.

Tony’s picks:

$1,500 – Atlanta (-3.5, +100) vs Tampa Bay – This opened at -4, and most places have it down to -3, which makes no sense to me. Tampa looked good to start the season, and Atlanta has several defensive injuries–but they’re just the better team, and they’re at home.

$1,000 – Carolina (-1, -105) at Washington – Not sure I get Washington opening as the favorite here, even at home–their best overall weapon is hurt (Chris Thompson), and may be without 1-2 other receivers as well. I’m surprised it’s still only at -1.5 in Carolina’s favor in most places, but will gladly take -105 and the single point.

$1,000 – San Francisco @ Green Bay: Over 46.5 (-105) – I’m throwing a dart here…feels like Rodgers should still be able to put able to put up points (say 28), and…well, obviously I hope San Francisco can.

$750 – Denver (+260) vs Los Angeles Rams – No doubt the Rams are the better team, but there has been snow in Denver, and it’s unclear how the Rams offers will be able to cope with that…so I’ll take a shot.