Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2017

Week five was solid. Andy and Tony both hit three of four – they missed their upset, but scored well enough in their spread games to have solid weeks. Tony’s bankroll is steadily growing, as he’s hit almost two of every three games he’s bet so far. Andy had dug himself a hole the previous couple weeks, but he’s within striking distance of even.

Can they continue the run?

Here are the standings:

Andy: Ok, I stopped the bleeding a bit, but there’s still a long way to go. A couple more 3-1 weeks and I’ll start feeling good about myself again.

$800 – Detroit (+5.5, -110) at New Orleans – This one I don’t get. Detroit has a better record, a better defense, a 2-0 road mark and a 2-0 mark on the road against the spread. The Lions are giving up fewer yards per play. They are giving up fewer points per game, they’re running more plays … the Saints are getting more yards, but the Lions are scoring more points. And yet, a spread that opened with New Orleans as a 3-point favorite has moved toward an even bigger spread. I pondered this as my upset of the week, but decided to go for a bigger return. Lions, in my opinion, should win this game.

$800 – Houston (-10, -102) vs Cleveland – I thought the Browns were going to improve this year. They still might, but I think they are still in search of their QB of the Future. In the meantime, the Browns have lost 15 in a row on the road with a 3-11-1 mark against the spread in those games (stats courtesy of OddsShark.com). The loss of two top defensive players hurts the Texans, but it’s not like they aren’t used to playing without J.J. Watt. And Deshaun Watson has breathed some real life into the offense. Texans will win this one big.

$800 – Green Bay (-3, -110) at Minnesota – The Vikings might be able to get away with a sloppy, goofy looking win over Chicago on the road against a rookie QB making his first start. Minnesota’s defense might keep this close, but I don’t expect Case Keenum to be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers in this one.

$300 – San Francisco (+375 money line) at Washington – They’re 0-5. They’re flying across country. They’re giving up a crap ton of yards passing against a team that loves to pass. Nothing says San Francisco should win this game. But Kyle Shanahan has this team fighting. They’ve been in almost every game. And Washington is just about as unreliable as it gets. This game will not remind anyone of the old Bill Walsh-Joe Gibbs battles of the 1980s. But it’s screams to me the potential for a surprise ending. And bettors seem to have an inkling of this, as well, given that the money line opened at +485.

Tony:

$750 – Philadelphia (+3, +100) over Carolina – If this game was on Sunday, I might be more inclined to go with Carolina – but something about the Thursday night match-up has me thinking that being on the road is somewhat negated, in which case I think the Eagles more consistent quarterback play and strong defensive play will carry the night.

$1,000 – Denver (-11.5, -108) over NY Giants – Just what the networks wanted—a winless Giants team, unable to run the ball, and now without their top three wide receivers, in a prime-time game. Denver hasn’t been all that impressive this year, but their defense just needs to show up to cover the spread on Sunday night.

$750 – Chicago at Baltimore: Under 39.5 (-110) – This week feels like I should be doing the opposite, but I’ll go with the Bears and their rookie quarterback being unable to score on another tough defense.

$500 – Detroit (+205 money line) over New Orleans – I get that the Saints are typically better at home. I get that the Saints are coming off the bye. I get the Saints can finally focus on using their best running backs, rather than trying to figure out what to do with the failed Adrian Peterson experiment. But the Lions are an inside team, and have arguably the better quarterback now, based on the first quarter of the season. I’d take the points, but they have the better money line payout (and worse spread payout) than the Eagles.