Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2016

Tony’s going to have to go back into hiding pretty soon if things keep going like this. He dropped all four of his bets in week five, depleting his bankroll to dangerous levels.

Andy hit just two of four, but his sizable bet on New England and Tom Brady’s return set him up with a nice, healthy positive for the week.

He’s hovering around the .500 mark in picks and has stayed close to even with his bankroll all season.

Here are the standings so far:

Here are our bets for week six.

Andy: I’ve been holding steady, but not much more. The Patriots one is nice, but that point spread was absurd. Outside of that game, I’ve mostly been confused about what to expect this year. And this season is no different. I’m at a loss this week.

$2,000 – New England (-10, +110) vs Cincinnati – I’ll probably ride the Patriots until they fail me. Tom Brady gets his first home game on the revenge tour. This is at the -110 at 8.5 points, but the Bengals have been more vulnerable to the pass this season than in recent years, so I’ll go with New England to win another one comfortably.

$750 – Pittsburgh (-9, +105) at Miami – The Steelers also are running at -7.5/-110 for the most part. But the Dolphins are playing so badly right now it’s hard to see them keeping up. Ben Roethlisberger is better at home than on the road, but that shouldn’t matter at this point. Pittsburgh’s defense alone might cover the 9.

$750 – Carolina at New Orleans: Over 53.5 – It’ll probably end up 27-26 now, but it’s hard to envision. Cam Newton comes back against the league’s most junior varsity defense. He should lead the struggling Panthers to at least 30. But Drew Brees is as good as it gets at home – with the Panthers’ rookie secondary vulnerable to the pass, Brees should be able to get close to 30, if not more, as well. Hoping for 41-38 … at halftime.

$300 – Cleveland (+260 money line) at Tennessee – The Titans have looked better than expected, at least to a degree. They’ve been competitive. But the Browns may get Josh McCown back. And where they have mostly been rostering thugs and assclowns the last several seasons, there appears to at least be solid effort coming from the Cleveland sidelines these days. That doesn’t guarantee wins. But I heard Trent Dilfer on the radio the other day say the Browns are closer than most people think. And I agree with him. They aren’t going 0-16. The first win has to come sometime.

Tony: This is getting absurd. I’ve never been as big into the sports book as someone I know, but 5-15? One more week of this, and it’d be reaching the point where the guy at the window starts asking if I’m sure I want to keep this up…

$250 – Denver (-3, +101) vs San Diego – I’m not sure I’ve seen a +101 before, but I’ll take it, with other sites at -110. With Trevor Siemien starting…well, at least it will be out of the way early.

$250 – Pittsburgh (-9, +105) vs Miami – Don’t love this spread, but even in Miami, Pittsburgh shouldn’t face much of a challange here.

$250 – New Orleans (+2.5, Even) vs Carolina – Never would have guessed that I’d be going New Orleans here, but Carolina has looked bad, and the Saints are at home.

$298 – San Francisco (+325 moneyline) vs Buffalo – Everything is pointing to the Bills in this one–San Francisco traveling east, changing their quarterback, not being any good…but we’re still talking a Rex Ryan led Bills team here.