Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2016

At a 3-0-1 clip for week one, Andy started this year’s “Bet the Mortgage” segment with a better week than he had all last season.

Tony didn’t fare quite as well, but he did take advantage of an outlier money line bet on the Giants to cash in with a positive week – he’s a mythical $305 closer to paying back the debt he owes the sharks from last season.

All in all, we added a combined roughly 10 percent to the pot in week one. Can we keep it going?

Here’s where we stand:

Tony:

So a silly line helps me net a small profit in week 1…I guess beggers can’t be choosers—better than last year.

$1,500 – Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -105) over Los Angeles Rams – I see a lot of places not putting up lines on this one—and with these odds, I don’t blame them. Yes, Seattle didn’t look good week 1. Yes, Russell Wilson might miss the game. But the Rams didn’t just get beat in week 1—they were destroyed. By a team that might not crack 5 wins. I seriously considered just dumping my entire bankroll here.

$500 – Green Bay Packers (-3, +105) over Minnesota Vikings – Yes, I normally don’t bet on or against my hometown team. Yes, I’m leaving myself open to a double whammy (Packers win by 2, lose the game and the bet). Yes, the Vikings are deciding between Shaun Hill and Sam Bradford. As much as it pains me, if the Vikings offense of week 1 shows up, something tells me that they’re not going to score 14 defensive points to stay in it.

$500 – New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: Over 52.5 – I’ll play it straight for at least one week before going the opposite, and take the obvious over in a game with two rock solid offenses paired with suspect (at best) defenses.

$1,000 – Jacksonville Jaguars (+145 money line) over San Diego Chargers – Was originally just going to take the Jags with the three points (saw it paying even money in one spot), but there’s not a lot on the money line I like this week, so here goes nothing. The Chargers impressed in the first half of week one, then McCoy’d down their leg. Even traveling west across the entire country, the Jags should roll.

Andy:

Geez, he goes a season-and-a-half without posting a winning week and now he’s worried that he got there by taking advantage of a skewed line – take it where you can get it, yo.

He’s right about a couple things: The Jags will beat the Chargers and there isn’t much on the money line to like this week. But here goes:

$750 – Seattle (-3.5, -105) at Los Angeles – The Seahawks were one of the league’s most disappointing teams to me in week one. Barely hanging on at home to beat the Dolphins isn’t a good start. Russell Wilson was bad and the offensive line isn’t good. But one of the teams that looked worse was the Rams. I see a lot more reason for hope with Seattle than I do the reformed Los Angeles squad. And I get the bonus of -105. Sweet.

$750 – Jacksonville (+3, -110) at San Diego – I’m taking a bit of a risk riding road teams here in the first two, but I think the Chargers are going to struggle to replace Keenan Allen. And I think the Jaguars are starting to build something. They come in 0-1, but they pushed the Packers to the limit. I think they are a legit good team – or will be soon. But you don’t have to be that good to beat San Diego, as evidenced by the one decent quarter of football played by Kansas City in week one.

$700 – Carolina vs San Francisco: Under 45 – So … Cam Newton is good, I get that. San Francisco put up 28 against Los Angeles last week, but … the Panthers aren’t the Rams. Carolina will be good and fired up after losing the Denver rematch and I wouldn’t be surprised to find the Niners on the other side of a shutout this week. Where are the 45 points going to come from?

$300 – Tennessee (+220 money line) at Detroit – This isn’t so much a case of liking the Titans, though I thought they actually hung in pretty well for a half against a solid Minnesota defense. But I am not buying into the Lions yet. And when you get two bad teams on the field together, who knows what can happen? There was little on the money line worth chasing this week. This is kind of a “what the heck” kind of pick.