Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2014 NFL Best Bets

Week five rocked. We both went 3-1 and both of us were, respectively, a second half choke and poor play calling from a coach who can’t commit to the run away from hitting our upsets and having perfect weeks.

Tony’s three $1,000-plus bets put him at up $3,450 for the week, pushing him ahead of me for winnings for the season. My more conservative bets netted a $1,764 profit – we’re both well over 30 percent ahead for the season, however.

Here are the standings thus far:

Andy: I’ve been relatively conservative in my bets so far, at least compared with my brother. I’ve avoided four-figure gambles. But now that I’m playing with a bit of house money I’ll slowly start ramping up a bit. My struggles last season are not completely lost on me – I know this could turn at any time. But while I’ve got a decent streak going, I might as well ride it a bit.

$1,000 – Denver (-11, +115) at NY Jets – This line is anywhere from 9.5 to 11, but our old buddy 5dimes.eu is offering +115 for the 11. I’m not 100 percent comfortable with this – I’ve had bad luck betting against teams that got blasted the week before (see Pittsburgh over Tampa prediction), but Denver is a top three team and the Jets are still trying to convince people that Geno Smith can be a starting QB in the NFL. If the Broncos get up early, this game – and Rex Ryan’s coaching career – could be over by halftime.

$1,000 – Seattle (-9.5, +105) vs Dallas – This spread again comes from the 5dimes folks. I’d rather get this game at a TD, but for a couple extra points the payoff jumps from -110 to +105 – worth the extra risk. And seriously, this should be an easy win. Dallas is 4-1, but really doesn’t do much for me. And Seattle, after a lackluster win over Washington on Monday night, should be amped to get back to its friendly confines. If the Cowboys keep this one close I’ll start thinking about taking them seriously but my guess is they come back to earth in a big way.

$750 – Indianapolis (-3.5, -105) at Houston – This goes against the grain a bit, in that Thursday night games so far have been blowouts and four of the five have gone the way of the home team. But the Colts are simply better than Houston. Could do it for -2.5 from a couple sites, but Bovada has this posted on Yahoo at -3.5 and I’ll take that without hesitation.

$600 – NY Giants (+128 moneyline) at Philadelphia – I’m a little surprised the Eagles are favored in this game, given how well the Giants have played the last few weeks. If Eli Manning and the Giants special teams unit can avoid giving up turnovers and big plays to the special teams and defense for the Eagles, Philadelphia’s offense is going to have to show a lot more than it has so far this season. And until that happens, I’m buying into the idea that Philly can lose to anyone – if Foles & Co. don’t turn things around, this game might not even be close.

Tony: A busy week kept me out of the imaginary sports book until mere hours before kickoff…a busy week that included some time in a real casino, so it wasn’t all bad (I didn’t end up 30% up, but I didn’t end up 30% down either). Last week’s big bets are what I’ve been waiting for–time to put the petal to the medal this week.

$2,000 – Denver (-11, +120) at NY Jets – Somehow waiting on this one netted me a better payoff than Andy got (and if I’m reading my aggressive book’s site right, I could buy my way into as high as +138 if I wanted to give 12.5 points)–I can’t believe that people would be taking the Jets here, unless they think that somehow a Mike Vick appearance will solve something. Here’s a hint: it won’t. The only thing keeping me from betting even more here is the Broncos traveling east, although that’s usually more of a West Coast thing than Mountain thing.

$1,500 – San Diego (-8, +120) at Oakland – Another +120 game for what should be a cake walk? The Chargers aren’t even changing time zones, and even if I think they’re suspect overall, they are still miles ahead of the Raiders. Might be a trap game, but I’ll take the bait, especially with the Chargers finding an option other than Donald Brown last week.

$1,000 – Green Bay Packers at Miami: Over 47 (-110) – I really wanted to to pick the Dolphins straight up here, being at home with a decent running back tandem that might give the Pack’s weak run defense fits. But as sad as it is, I can’t pull the trigger against Aaron Rodgers, especially at a meager +105 in a pick’em contest. I can, however, assume that the Pack will be in the 20’s, and I think the Dolphins can get there too–so as long as it isn’t 24-21, we should be looking at a solid over here.

$400 – Chicago Bears (+158 moneyline) at Atlanta Falcons – I seriously considered the Panthers, Lions, and Washington as my moneyline upset this week, but I’m going to stick with the Bears, despite the less attractive payout. The Bears are actually a team that I think would perform better on a regular basis indoors, with their focus on the passing game, and I’m not sure there are many games the Falcons deserve to be favored in, even at home.