Bet the Mortgage: Week 6, 2013 NFL Best Bets

I’m far from saying we’re getting good at this sports gambling thing because we’re not. But we did put up a competent performance in week five.

After a rough fourth week, I rebounded to hit three of four bets. My big moneyline bet on Jacksonville predictably did not pay off, but I hit my other three for a gain of $530 on $900 worth of bets.

It helped me and Tony both that Dallas and Denver went waaaaaaaaay over the 56.5 number. I had $250 on that bet. Tony had a massive $400 wager on the over. That propelled him to a $171 profit for the weekend on $900 in bets, even though he split at 2-2.

So I’m continuing to slowly add to the mythical $10,000 I started with. I’m closing in on $11,000, which would be a 10 percent return – not any kind of early retirement track, but better than investing in a CD. Tony got off to a rough start, but as you can see in the table below, he is rebounding nicely and approaching the break even mark.

Here’s to more weeks like the last one.

Tony’s out of the country dodging a couple of angry looking men in suits who are still looking to collect on his lost bets from the first couple weeks of the season. He promises to check in with more detail on his bets when the coast looks clear, but he did submit the games he’ll be picking this week. My explanations are below, as well.

Andy’s bets:

$250 – Cincinnati (-7, -115) at Buffalo – It took me a minute to figure out why Buffalo was getting seven points at home against the Bengals. Then I remembered the Bills were starting Thad Lewis in this game. I can only guess Lewis is starting because after last Thursday’s game it was discovered that Jeff Tuel isn’t even old enough to play for his junior varsity high school team. The Bengals could lay an egg in this one – they did against Cleveland a couple weeks ago. But I think they build on the momentum of a solid defensive performance against New England and pound the Bills into an early submission.

$200 – Oakland (+8.5, -110) at Kansas City – The Chiefs have blown out the New York Giants and Jacksonville, two teams with a combined 0-10 record. Otherwise their wins have been by one, nine and 10 points. I think they win this game. But the Raiders under Terrelle Pryor are playing the most inspired ball they have since Bill Callahan led the team to the Super Bowl a decade ago. I expect another hard fought Kansas City win, say 28-24-ish.

$200 – New Orleans at New England: (Under 49.5, -110) – There is going to be a lot of offensive firepower on the field Sunday afternoon so I may be going slightly against the grain on this one. But the Saints have been equally impressive on defense this season and the Patriots are struggling a bit to get some chemistry going on offense. There will be plenty of points, but the defenses will play just well enough to keep it a hair under the number.

$250 – Upset of the Week: Washington (Moneyline +210) at Dallas – No, RG III and the Redskins have not played well this season. But Dallas is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Denver. It would be just like the Cowboys to let the hangover from that game affect their performance this week. Coming off of a bye, I think Washington will be ready to play and I think they pick up a big divisional win on the road to get back in the NFC East race. It’s not like anyone else in the division really seems to want to win it.

Tony’s bets:

$200 – St. Louis (+7, +105) at Houston – Houston has been spiraling out of control, and I’m not sure things are going to get any better for them this year. Matt Schaub appears to be lost out there, and their defense does them no favors. The Rams, meanwhile, have been a disappointment so far–but playing a team that is down may get them back on the right path. Any way you look at it, the Rams with points and a plus payout makes for an easy bet.

$200 – Philadelphia (-1, -110) at Tampa Bay – Tampa is another team spiraling out of control, and even playing with a backup QB on the road, the Eagles are a fairly safe bet. Nick Foles might be one of the best backup QB in the league, and Greg Schiano’s days in Tampa have to be numbered at this point.

$300 – Jacksonville at Denver: (Over 53, -110) – I don’t know if I really think this will hold up…it will likely come down to a combination of how many garbage points the Jags can put up, and how many Denver receivers I am facing in potential fantasy football losses. At this point, though, I will take the over until someone holds the Broncos under.

$150 – Upset of the Week: (Moneyline +210) Washington at Dallas – Call this one a bit of a hunch…but Tony Romo played possibly his best game as a pro last week, but ultimately made a late mistake that cost the Cowboys a chance at winning the game. Not sure if the stats would hold it out, but it seems like the kind of mistake that Romo in the past has let haunt him into the next week. That’s what I’m counting on here–that, and the NFC East being such a terrible division that a Redskins win will keep things more intriguing.

To see our straight up picks for week six, click here.