Bet the Mortgage: Week 5, 2016

More mediocrity – and more of the kind of bets that make a guy go broke – in week four.

Don’t follow our lead – we know nothing of what we are doing.

Then again, that never stopped us before.

Here are the standings so far.

And here are our darts for week five.

Andy: The last couple weeks have sucked. And I really didn’t have good feelings as I was making my picks. There are a couple games this week I feel pretty good about. Hopefully I can recapture some week one magic.

$3,000 – New England (-10.5, -110) at Cleveland – This spread started at 7.5 and has steadily gone up to 10.5. It could go up further. It won’t matter. It could be -30 and I’d still take the Pats this week. Cody Kessler has been passable for Cleveland and better days may be on the way. But an Angry Tom Brady, coming off a ridiculous four-game suspension, and a motivated Bill Belichick, coming off an ugly loss to Buffalo last week, are not going to let up at all in this one. I would not be the least bit surprised if this team is up by 60 late in the game and is still throwing for more. I’ve never been more certain of an outcome in my life.

$750 – Philadelphia (-3, -105) at Detroit – This line actually started out with Detroit favored by 3. Really? The Lions have been … the Lions. The Eagles have been really good. Could I see this being a trap game? Perhaps. But the Eagles are coming off their bye and they’ve played better all season. So they should win this going away.

$750 – Denver (-5.5, -110) vs Atlanta – Atlanta has defied … whatever it is you defy when you go 3-1 while giving up an average of more than 30 points per game. That means your offense is dialed in. But that’s not going to continue this week against a defense that is playing at historically good levels. The Broncos will win this game comfortably.

$300 – Tennessee (+165 money line) at Miami – There aren’t a lot of upsets in the mix this week. This is a match-up of two bad teams. I think the distractions in south Florida with the weather and possible relocation of the game make an upset a distinct possibility here. Best of luck to the residents as they fight through another storm – but it doesn’t set up well for the football team.

Tony: I finally hit…mediocrity! I’d like to thank the academy, and all the little people who made this possible, but most of all I’d like to thank myself, for being me.  I can guarantee this is the start of something…

$800 – San Francisco (+3, +110) at Arizona – The Cardinals will be without Carson Palmer. Drew Stanton has helped them win a few games, but that was with a team that was rolling—this team is reeling. The Cardinals should win this one, but they also shouldn’t be 1-3.

$800 – Oakland (-4, -105) vs San Diego – The Chargers have been better than expected this year, in that they’ve had a lead in most games, and they’ve already won once—I would have guessed it might be week 8 before we could say that. They’ve also choked away two games already—even though no one seems positive about where they’re playing in 2017 (which always makes change difficult…the only explanation for Jeff Fisher’s job), I’d say coach Mike McCoy’s seat might be getting a little warmer by the week…

$300 – Los Angeles (-3, +120) vs Buffalo – I really can’t believe I’m putting money on the Rams, but what the heck—I’ve won money in stranger ways. This is more of an indictment of Rex Ryan than really thinking that highly of the Rams—Sexy Rexy has the Bills feeling pretty good about themselves after beating the Patriots, which means most likely he’s been stroking his own ego this week rather than focusing on a game plan to beat the lowly Rams, who after moving to 4-1 will probably start a 7 game slide before ending the year hot to inexplicably save Jeff Fisher’s spot again…

$200 – Cleveland (+450 money line) vs New England – I don’t really think this is going to happen, but at +450 (which I thought would be higher), I’ll take a chance, just so I can brag about it if I happen to hit. I can easily see Angry Tom Brady torching the Browns, but I can also see Angry Tom Brady coming out and letting his emotions get in the way. And let’s not forget that the Browns will be amped as well—at 0-4, despite Terrell Pryor’s belief that they will finish 12-4, this might as well be their Super Bowl…