Bet the Mortgage: Week 5, 2015 – Best Bets

This has started out as one of the more difficult seasons to figure out in recent memory. Even Vegas seems a bit more confused than normal – one week the street cleans up on them and the next they get everything back.

The confusion is coming out in our bets too. Not that we’re professional gamblers or anything, but other than one 3-1 week by Tony, we’ve failed to get more than two correct in any given week so far. Tony split his four bets again last week, hitting on two bigger bets that provided enough for a small profit. I am struggling big time. I got a push on one over/under bet, but only hit one of my other three. At least my losses are coming in small enough doses where I should be able to ride this out a while.

So here we go again:

Tony

$500 – Jacksonville (+2.5, +110) over Tampa Bay – This one isn’t really so much who’s going to win as it is who’s not going to lose. The fact that Jacksonville is only getting 2.5 points on the road indicates that they would be favored to win at a neutral site—but I’m not so sure Tampa isn’t already a neutral site, given that it’s just across state, and no one seems to want to go to either team’s games. I would take Jacksonville on the moneyline, but at just +135, it’s not that exciting.

$1,000 –  New England (-10, +105) over Dallas – I realize it’s a road game for the Patriots, but it’s Tom Brady against Brandon Weeden.

$1,000 – New England at Dallas – Over 49.5 (-110) – Seriously, Brady vs. Weeden. The Patriots could care less if they give up 20-30 points in garbage time, as long as they score 40-50 themselves in demolishing their opponents. They’ve averaged just under 40 points a game so far. And while not great, Pittsburgh and Buffalo have better defenses than Dallas does. Plus, Brandon Weeden.

$250 – Chicago (+355 moneyline) over Kansas City – I can’t believe I’m putting money on Jay Cutler (originally this was the Browns, and I couldn’t believe I was putting money on Josh McCown—I came to my senses…a little bit), but other than the shutout against the Seahawks (see Clausen, Jimmy), the Bears are putting up about 23 points a game—the Chiefs are actually scoring a bit more than that (about 25), but they’re also only 1-3. And this is as much about faith in John Fox as it is anyone. That, and the +355 payout.

Andy

I admit fully that my lack of success to this point in picking games, both straight-up and against the spread, is starting to get in my head. I may be trying too hard to find trends in a league that is built on bucking them as often as possible. So maybe it’s time to just point at a couple, make a pick and see what happens, right? I wish my worked that way, but I’m not as capable as my brother is of saying “It’s obvious it should go this way, so I’m betting the opposite.” So here I go again, fruitlessly analyzing things to death.

$600 – Indianapolis (+2.5, +105) at Houston – The Colts have been massively disappointing this season, losing a couple ugly games to start the season and barely winning against Tennessee and Jacksonville. If someone had said going into the season that Houston would be favored in this game I would have laughed. It’s reality, now, however, and likely well deserved. That said, Matt Hasselbeck likely needed a week to knock off the rust after not playing much the last few years. And the Texans aren’t good, particularly at QB. I have to think Indianapolis is going to turn it around sooner or later, and I’ll guess it starts tonight.

$600 – Jacksonville at Tampa Bay: Under 42 (-110) – Other than a game in New England, where the Jags were gashed for 51 points, Jacksonville’s defense has played pretty well, giving up about 19 points per game in its other three. The Bucs have been a bit more generous on defense, but countering that is the Jags’ simple refusal to score. They could be 3-1 right now if they could score more than the 13 points per game they’ve averaged in losses. Bet on something like 20-16 as the score on this one.

$500 – St. Louis (+9, -105) at Green Bay – This may look like a daunting match-up, but Green Bay – while winning comfortably – has not been blowing teams away. The 14 point win at San Francisco last week was the largest margin to date. Meanwhile, St. Louis has knocked off two conference giants in Seattle and Arizona, showing offensive competence in both games. They’re inconsistent, having also dropped a deuce twice. What intrigues me about this is the emergence last week of Todd Gurley, the first-round rookie RB the Rams have patiently been sitting on as he rested his ACL. I think the Packers win this game, but I expect St. Louis to put up a noble fight and keep it closer than expected. So … without a doubt, put your cash on a Packers blow-out.

$400 – Washington (+290 moneyline) at Atlanta – Sure, Atlanta is undefeated and playing at home. Sure, the Redskins have alternated between looking brilliant and tossing duds. I just don’t believe in the Falcons as a real contender yet – they’ve beaten a Philly team with a QB playing his first game in three seasons, a Dallas team minus Dez Bryant and Tony Romo, a Houston team in search of a QB and a Giants team that spent the first two weeks giving away early Christmas presents. The Skins need to run the ball and I think they can. The Falcons give up just 85.2 yards per game on the ground right now, but those numbers are deceptive. They allow 4.4 yards per carry, tied for sixth-worst in the league, and they’ve allowed a league-high seven TDs rushing. If Matt Jones and Alfred Morris can combine to mix up the offense and keep the ball away from Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, they can bring this Atlanta team back down to Earth.