Bet the Mortgage: Week 5, 2014 NFL Best Bets

It’s not always about getting every game right, but about which games you do hit. We both went 2-2 last week, but I hit one of my big ones and my upset while Tony took a big hit from the Steelers’ collapse against Tampa.

So I expanded a slight lead and now have about a $1,500 cushion for the season. Tony’s ramping things up even further this week, though, in his efforts to either get rich or hit the poor house.

Here are the standings:

And here are our bets.

Andy: There may be a couple upsets worth poking at this week, but otherwise this feels like another tough week. Slow and steady seems to have worked so far, so I’ll stick with keeping most of my bets in the mid-to-upper three-figure range for now.

$750 – Green Bay (-8, -105) vs Minnesota – I don’t love betting the Thursday night game, but this one seems kind of straightforward. Reports are starting to leak that the Vikings are probably going to start Christian Ponder. Truth is, it doesn’t matter. I like the way Teddy Bridgewater looked last week, but it’s hard for me to believe that he’s going to play well enough for Minnesota to stay close coming off of a short week during which he can’t practice for a game he’d be playing on a bum ankle in bad weather. I’ll probably be wrong, but while I think the future is brighter than it has been in awhile, Green Bay wins this one handily no matter who plays QB.

$750 – Pittsburgh (-7, +120) at Jacksonville – Hmm. Blake Bortles gives the Jags some hope for the future, but this team still hasn’t looked good for awhile. The Steelers aren’t great and they dropped a deuce at the end of last week’s embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay. But they’re still better than the Jags and if they don’t come in with a chip on their shoulders this week, it might be time to write this team off for the season. And getting +120 for seven points from 5dimes.eu vs -110 for six from a couple other sites feels like a bonus.

$500 – Cleveland (+1, +110) at Tennessee – This is one of the “upsets” I think could happen this week. Tennessee has been unimpressive since a first week win. The Browns, meanwhile, feel to me a bit like they are about to turn a corner. This next stretch of four or five games could put Cleveland in playoff contention if things fall right. I don’t think they’re postseason worthy yet, but I do think they start a solid run toward respectability this week vs the Titans.

$400 – Chicago (+120 moneyline) at Carolina – It’s not exactly a huge upset, but I think the Bears have too much on offense for the wounded Panthers to stop. The shine of Carolina’s unexpected run to the playoffs last season has worn off and it won’t be long before they’re no longer favored in games like this. Jay Cutler will have a big game and Chicago will roll.

Tony:

All this aggressive betting has netted me so far is…$415. We’re a quarter of the way through the season, so it’s time to amp it up even more.

$1,500 – Denver Broncos (-8, +110) vs Arizona Cardinals – I actually like the Cardinals quite a bit this year, but I don’t think they can hang with the Broncos, especially in Denver. And at my favorite liberal odds online casino, they’re willing to give me +110 to give the Cards another point? No problem here.

$1,000 – Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, +120) at Jacksonville Jaguars – Yes, the same Steelers that choked against the Bucs last week and cost me a cool grand. That can’t happen two weeks in a row, right? Right? Once again, give an extra point, get +120 instead of -110.

$1,000 – Cleveland Browns (+1, +110) at Tennessee Titans – Who would have thought a couple weeks ago I would ever put a grand on the Browns for anything. While they’re just 1-2, they’ve been playing well, and appear to have a triple headed RB attack that could give the Titans fits. Meanwhile, Jake Locker has been inconsistent and hurt for the Titans, and is listed as ‘Likely’ to play, which always makes things dicey.

$500 – Kansas City Chiefs (+210 moneyline) at San Francisco 49ers – The Chiefs just dismantled the Patriots with ease, and have their own two headed RB tandem, plus a TE that appears to be ready to burst on the scene. Oh yeah, do you think Alex Smith might be motivated too? Meanwhile, the 49ers can’t seem to avoid distractions, like Jim Harbaugh wanting out, the players wanting Jim Harbaugh out, and only starting 2-2. Makes for a good game, hopefully.

For straight up week 5 picks, click here.