Bet the Mortgage: Week 4, 2015 – Best Bets

After we each alternated 1-3 and 2-2 weeks, Tony finally caught a good wave in week three, hitting three $1,000 bets and narrowly missing his upset.

I went 2-2, but lost my bigger bet when the Colts comeback was almost come back against by Tennessee – needed the Titans to make the two-point conversion and lose by a TD in OT… but so it goes.

So, anyway, Tony’s a bit up for the year. I’m a bit down for the year. Here are the standings:

Here we go again:

Tony

Go big or go home…if nothing else, it makes betting life more interesting. Down big one week, up big (well, back above even) the next.

$1,000 – Green Bay Packers (-9.5, Even) at San Francisco 49ers – The Pack does have a couple things working against it (on the road, and…um…yeah), but Aaron Rodgers plays in his home state, against the team that chose not to take him #1 overall. Never mind that had they taken him #1 overall, with his mechanics at the time, he probably would have faired even worse than Alex Smith. Anyway, highly doubt the Pack come out as flat as the Vikings did in week 1—they just beat the far superior Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points, no reason they shouldn’t here as well.

$1,000 – Indianapolis Colts (-10, +105) vs Jacksonville Jaguars – I realize that the Colts haven’t been playing well enough to justify a big bet on a big line. But I found one sports book willing to pay +105 for an extra point, and as I explained in my survivor pick this week, the Colts recent history against Jacksonville suggests a comfortable win. If the Jags keep this one close, then the Colts are in for a long season.

$1,000 – Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Chiefs: Over 44 (-110) – The Bengals have been playing well, and haven’t put up less than 24 points. The Chiefs, while 1-2, also haven’t scored less than 24 points.  As long as both of those trends continue, no problem here.

$300 – Houston Texans (+240 moneyline) at Atlanta Falcons – There are a lot of interesting moneyline bets this week—I could actually see the Rams, Vikings, Giants, Bills and Washington all paying out, including a couple of those at over +200. But I’m sticking with my initial gut feeling on the Texans, and hoping Arian Foster does in fact come back—with its shaky offensive line and defense, the Falcons have been playing with fire to get to 3-0, and one of these weeks it will bite them. I just hope Julio Jones still puts up a couple touchdowns in the effort.

Andy

$800 – Minnesota at Denver: Under 43 (-110) – Denver plays great, suffocating defense, but is struggling to run the ball on offense, putting Peyton Manning at risk of being hit hard and often by the Vikings. Minnesota sports a strong and improving defense, but isn’t passing the ball well, giving the Broncos an opportunity to single-up Mike Wallace and Co. with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris while keying on stopping Adrian Peterson. I don’t see either team exceeding much more than 20. It could be a low-scoring weekend for Minnesota football — there is a possibility that the scores of the Vikings/Broncos and Gophers/Northwestern Wildcats games don’t add up to the 43 Vegas has made the number for this game.

$700 – Houston at Atlanta: Over 46.5 (-110) – It’s very possible that this one comes back to bite me a bit, but … there have been 161 points scored in the first three Atlanta games. If the offensive line can keep J.J. Watt from mutilating Matt Ryan, the Falcons will continue to score. While the Falcons are 3-0, they have still given up 72 through three games. This could evolve into a shootout.

$750 – Buffalo (-5.5, -105) vs New York Giants – The Giants lost two winnable games against Dallas and an undefeated Atlanta team that certainly doesn’t have a defense with the makings of staying undefeated long before putting a decent beating on Washington. That’s 1-2 against competition that isn’t that great. Buffalo is the best team New York will have played so far. And while the Bills got slapped around pretty good by New England, they put the wood to Miami and Indianapolis teams that were expected before the season to compete for playoff spots. This will feel like a week off for Buffalo.

$300 – Houston (+240 moneyline) at Atlanta – I hate to agree with my brother, but this is the best upset possibility on the board this week. The Falcons are better than they were last year and are going to score points, but this team does not have the offensive line or defense to stay undefeated long. Arian Foster could return to add some juice and some balance to Houston’s offense. J.J. Watt should be able to pester the Falcons. If I were in Vegas this weekend I’d take a serious look at this one.