Bet the Mortgage: Week 3, 2016

Week two was as bad as week one was good.

A 1-7 combined mark knocked $5,000 off of our combined bankrolls.

As Tony put it when I informed him of his 0-4 futility: “That’s more like it.”

I guess he’s going back into hiding.

Anyway, here are the standings.

Andy: Didn’t feel good about last week pretty much from the get go. Not feeling great about this one either, but the segment isn’t going to write itself.

$750 – Arizona (-3.5, -110) at Buffalo – I will be leaning heavily on road teams this week. The Cardinals are coming off of a stomping of Tampa. Buffalo is coming off of stomping its offensive coordinator, even though the offense scored 31 points while the head coach’s brother’s defense gave up 37 points last Thursday. I’m guessing the Ryan brothers’ reign in western New York may be feeling a bit controversial to the players. Cardinals win comfortably.

$500 – Oakland (+1, even) at Tennessee – This game, theoretically anyway, pits two up-and-coming teams against one another. The thing is, while Oakland’s defense is bad, Tennessee’s offense is enough work-in-progress, where I don’t think the Raiders lose as much ground here as they might facing a better passing game. Meanwhile, I don’t see the Titans shutting down Carr, Cooper and Crabtree.

$500 – Denver (+3, +110) at Cincinnati – We’ve got the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos and their world-class defense a three-point dog against a Bengals team that, so far, has left me uninspired. Might go the under on this one too – I expect a low-scoring game. I think, at +110, it’s worth taking a shot on the Broncos and the line – they may win this game outright.

$300 – New York Jets (+130 money line) at Kansas City – The Jets offense scored 37 points in Buffalo last week. The Chiefs are struggling to score. The Jets defense struggling more than expected, but it’s still largely limiting the run. And Sheldon Richardson should continue helping that group even better in his second game back from suspension. If Kansas City can’t run, they can’t win.

Tony: So I don’t like to admit it, but sometimes in Vegas, when things are going my way at a blackjack table, I’ve been known to push all in on one hand—either get the pain over, or hopefully turn things around with a big hand.  Not like I get to stop making bets after this week, but after an 1-7 start to the season, time to go big.

$2,500 – Arizona (-3.5, -110) at Buffalo – The Cardinals played well after a week one loss to the Patriots, and the Bills haven’t looked anywhere near good yet. Even traveling cross country, no reason the Cards should lose, other than my betting on them.

$2,000 – Tampa Bay (-5.5, -110) vs. Los Angeles – The Rams have yet to score a touchdown this season, and are traveling east to face the Bucs. Even with the late start, they still might not have a touchdown after this week — although I suspect that Todd Gurley finally manages to find some way into the end zone … if the defense can get a turnover on the 2 yard line.

$1,500 – San Diego at Indianapolis: Under 51.5 (-110) – I was going to take the over in Atlanta/New Orleans, but after last week, not sure I want to try that logic again—so let’s take the under in the second highest O/U of the week, in a game with a fair amount of ineptitude on both sides for both teams. I also like the over in tonight’s game (Pats/Texans O/U 40).

$1,000 – New York Jets (+130 money line) at Kansas City – It’s not exactly a sexy money line pick, but the Jets are playing fairly well, rolling up the 4^th most yards offensively in the league so far, while the Chiefs are pretty middle of the road.