Bet the Mortgage: Week 3, 2015 – Best Bets

Tony and I flipped our results from week one last week – which was not good for Tony. He went big – and lost big, taking a $2,050 hit to his bankroll after hitting just one of four bets. I backed off on my bets and went 2-2, going plus-$425 for the week.

Here are the standings:

Here we go again.

Andy

Week two got a bit better. I hit two of three, including my moneyline pick, and if Drew Brees hadn’t gotten hurt against Tampa, in all likelihood I would have hit the over that I missed by two points in that game. On one hand, that could be a signal that I’m starting to get a feel for the league this season. On the other, any time I feel like I’m getting a feel for the league, the league typically throws me a wicked curveball.

So I’ll probably take it a little easy again, so as to not drop 20 percent of my bankroll in one week like my opponent did last week.

Here are my bets for week three:

$750 – Indianapolis at Tennessee: Over 45 (-110) – The Titans are bad, but they’ve been made to look less bad by playing Cleveland and Tampa Bay the first two weeks. The Colts are less than hoped, but not bad – but they’ve been made to look worse than they are by playing the Jets and Bills in weeks one and two. The Colts offense is about to explode. They’ll get into the 30s this week. The Titans will score some points on Indy’s miserable defense. This number should get into the 50s.

$750 – Buffalo at Miami: Under 43 (-110) – Five of the last six games in this series have not gotten out of the 30s. This game feels similar. Both have some skill talent on offense, but even better defenses. The Bills were exposed a bit last week by the Patriots, but who hasn’t been? This feels like a 21-17 game settled late.

$1,000 – Indianapolis (-3.5, +105) at Tennessee – The Colts have not looked good so far and the defense has been brutal. But Indy hasn’t lost a division game in like 12 seasons and has beaten Tennessee the last seven straight in this series – with last year’s being blowouts. Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota has shown he’s catching on to the pro game, but the Titans don’t have the weapons to stick with the Colts in this game.

$300 – Buffalo (+130 Moneyline) at Miami – As mentioned, this feels like a low-scoring game that will be settled late. To date I’ve been slightly more impressed with Buffalo than with Miami. Buffalo has won three of the last four, including the game in Miami in 2013. They increase that streak here.

Tony

OK, I don’t really know where I’m at for money—I always screw up the math on that—but I know it’s not good after a 1-2 performance last week, where I only hit my upset pick.

So take a week to regroup and recover, right?  Sure.

$1,000 – Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, -105) at St. Louis Rams – So the Steelers got beat squarely (but didn’t look terrible, especially running the ball) by the best team in the NFL so far, then whipped the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams got a little lucky in beating a so far vulnerable Seattle Seahawks team, before being beaten soundly by Washington, who got beat by Miami in the opening week. And the Steelers are only 1-1/2 point favorites, especially with Le’Veon Bell back? I’m so sure of this one, if I were in Vegas I would probably go Rams just because.

$1,000 – Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, Even) at Baltimore Ravens – I picked the Bengals to win the division this year, and if they’re going to do that, they have to beat the Ravens—and I think they have the offensive weapons to do it.

$1,000 – Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots – Over 47.5 (-110) – The Patriots have been leaving a path of destruction in their wake, in response to the NFL punishing them for cheating. They also don’t seem to be too concerned about giving up some points. Or, maybe with a fully inflated ball, they can’t help it. Regardless, I’m seeing a 34-17 victory here.

$200 – Chicago Bears (moneyline +950) over Seattle Seahawks – Given the three wins above, I can afford to chase a long shot. Yeah, Kam Chancellor might be back, and might see the field a little this week—just wait for him to hurt himself, like so many other holdouts. And Jay Cutler probably won’t be able to play for Chicago—that seemed to work out ok last time, though … and before anyone brings up that it wasn’t Jimmy Clausen, let me remind you it was Josh McCown. And the Bears, for their lack of talent, have John Fox leading the way — they’ve looked way more solid than I expected so far.