Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2019

Okay, so what in the hell were the Texans thinking Monday night playing 20 yards downfield when Drew Brees needed about six yards on the last offensive play to give his kicker a shot at the game-winning field goal?

This has not been a very productive segment for us for years, but we were both a Texans’ upset from finishing solidly in the money in week one. Instead, Tony got a small win and Andy took a small loss. Nothing humiliating. A good start… but it could have been so much better.

Here are the standings:

And, so, we’ve begun. Tony’s got the lead, so here goes:

Tony:

$1,000 – Kansas City (-7.5, -110) at Oakland – Yes, the game is in Oakland. Yes, Tyreek Hill is out. Yes, the Raiders managed to beat the Broncos even after all the drama with AB. Don’t expect this one to be all that close.

$750 – Arizona (+13.5, -110) at Baltimore – The Ravens absolutely dismantled the Dolphins … but that’s the Dolphins. Of course, Arizona is on the road, but this line started at 8.5 — which I probably would have avoided — but almost two touchdowns is too much for a Ravens team that still has plenty of question marks.

$1,000 – Dallas at Washington: Over 46.5 (-110) – The total line has moved down two points in this one, despite the Cowboys having a solid offense, and Washington actually moving the ball pretty well in week 1. Adrian Peterson might slow that down a little bit … but then again, Derrius Guice didn’t end up playing a big role in week 1, so maybe AP won’t impact things that much either.

$500 – Seattle (+175 money line) at Pittsburgh – Not a lot of big money lines this week that are that enticing—I mean, if I was in Vegas maybe I’d drop $20 on the Dolphins, just to brag that I did it if it somehow hits — but outside of that, only a handful of teams are +200 or better, and none of them look like real good shots to pull off upsets (unless my boy Gardner Minshew comes through again … I did grab him in a superflex BEFORE the games last week). So I’ll throw down with the Seahawks, who managed to eke out a Week 1 win against the Bengals, despite assurances from a certain someone that they were a lock for suicide pools (I mean, a win is a win … but my pick of Baltimore had it wrapped up by the end of the first quarter). The Steelers looked like a team that doesn’t know what to do without Le’Veon Bell or AB around last week, and while the Seahawks are no Patriots…they might not need to be to win this week.

Andy:

Stupid Texans and their stupid conservative defense. I knew when there were 37 seconds left when Brees got the ball back that there was a decent chance I was screwed. Brees is nearing the end – he doesn’t have nearly the zip he used to, but he still just knows how to play football. That was a fun game to watch, even though I lost the bet.]

Anyway:

$900 – Tampa Bay at Carolina: Under 49.5 (-109) – The total opened at 51.5 and I do wish I had those two extra points, but this feels like one of those ugly Thursday night slugfests where guys who aren’t used to banging against one another have to come out of the blocks four days later. I can see how the Panthers might get into the mid-to-upper 20s here, but Tampa … Still seems to be figuring things out. I don’t see a lot of scoring, hence the under play.

$800 – Atlanta (+1, +100) vs Philadelphia – So, I’ve started finding my lines at oddsshark.com, where you can still get a half-dozen different current values. You can get Atlanta at +2 for -110 in some spots. I don’t feel the need. The Falcons were embarrassed on the road in week one. This is, I think, still a pretty good team. And while the Eagles are good, as well – perhaps the … well, not “class” of the NFC with those fans, but perhaps the best team in the conference … I think this is a situation where betting on the home dog makes some sense.

$800 – Chicago (-3, -105) at Denver – The Bears looked bad on opening night, no question about it. The Broncos didn’t look much better on Monday. The difference … well, a couple differences, include Chicago having four extra days to recover and prep and the Bears actually being a good team. Joe Flacco looks bored to me. I think it’s going to be a long season in Denver.

$500 – New York Giants (+105 money line) vs Buffalo – I realize that this isn’t exactly a gutty pick here, but I think it’s a winner. Neither of these teams is particularly good. But the Bills are coming off a win and the Giants a loss. The line opened up favoring the Giants, but I think people are forgetting that the Bills were basically trash for most of the first three quarters of their win against the Jets. The Giants are at home. Give me the home dog in this dog of a game.