Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2015 – Best Bets

In standing with tradition, we were very mediocre in week one. Tony got off to a positive start, albeit winning barely enough for a drink and dinner at a decent Vegas restaurant.

I had a little harder time, as most of the games I thought I felt certain about ended up being less than sure things.

Here are the standings after week one.

And here are our attempts at redemption in week two.

Tony

It’s a rough week for betting, especially this early in the season—who knows if the Vikings dismal performance Monday night was for real (jump on the Lions with three points) or if they will settle down and now live up to expectations (give three points all day long).  The Steelers couldn’t cover Rob Gronkowski (49ers with 5-1/2 in another upset?), but then again, the 49ers don’t have even have a Chris or Dan Gronkowski on their roster (49ers travel east? 5-1/2 point cakewalk).

So, Telly’s Sports Gambling Law #38.04B comes into play—when you have no clue what to do, go big or go home. It least the giant ball of flames you go down in will look cool. Hopefully.

$1,000 – Baltimore Ravens (-7, +115) at Oakland Raiders – Tough call. Oakland is at home, but Derek Carr is a question mark—looks like he’ll play, but if he bangs that thumb again, will it last? Baltimore didn’t look great in their opener, and lost Terrell Suggs for the season—but the Raiders got whupped by Cincinnati (in Oakland) in week 1. I’m on record saying I think the Bengals are better than the Ravens this year—but the Ravens are close enough to still cover this, so with the +115 payout, I’ll take a chance.

$1,000 – St. Louis Rams (-3.5, -110) at Washington – Here’s one that I might kick myself over…I don’t trust the Rams yet. But even more importantly, I don’t trust Washington. More to the point, I don’t trust Kirk Cousins. Especially against a defense that wasn’t nearly as bad as the score indicated against Seattle—the ‘Hawks scored one TD on special teams, and one on defense, meaning the defense only gave up 16 points. If they get as much pressure on Cousins as they did on Russell Wilson (six sacks), expect more than just the one interception that Wilson threw.

$1,000 – Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants – Over 51 (-110) – Ultimately, was tempted to go the over on the Dallas/Philly matchup, as none of the four teams in these two matchups seems that concerned (or able) to play defense for a full game. Or half. Ultimately, the Falcons/Giants win out due to the lower number to hit, combined with the idea that Dallas would prefer to pound it out on the ground if they can, which could keep their game in the upper 40’s, rather than hitting the 55.

$500 – Dallas Cowboys (+190 moneyline) over Philadelphia Eagles – I was all set to go with a smaller bet on Tampa over New Orleans (not sure I believe it, but at+385 worth a chance), or a similar bet on the Houston Texans (on the road, but they seemed to respond to Ryan Mallet), then I saw this one sitting at +190. I realize Dallas didn’t look great against the Giants, and they are on the road (never easy in the NFC East) without Dez Bryant, but as much as I hate to say it, this Dallas team already seems to have something about it that makes me think they’ll figure out a way to get it done. It may not be pretty, and it would likely involve keeping the defense off the field, but they’ve got the horses to do it. Even without Bryant—who they played without for most of the Giants game.

Andy

I hate betting on week one. No matter how much you read up on what teams do you just never really get a sense for how they are going to play together until the season starts – which makes bets incredibly difficult. It showed. And it’s not any easier this time around either.

So while Tony is ramping up with his “ball of fire” theory, I’m slowing down a bit. I ended week one more confused than I was to start the season, so I’ll dial back the amounts the next couple weeks to see if I can get a better read. Here goes.

$600 – Arizona (-2.5, -110) at Chicago – The Bears held their own against Green Bay, but faltered in the end. I think the Cardinals have a better defense and nearly an equal number of weapons on offense, so I think the Cardinals can go in to Soldier Field and win by at least as much as the Packers did.

$500 – Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Over 47.5 (-110) – Hmm. Neither team likes playing defense. New Orleans put up some points against a better Arizona defense last week, so they’ll get theirs. I’m really surprised this number isn’t above 50.

$400 – Baltimore (-7, +115) at Oakland – If I were feeling cocky I’d say “I can give 6.5 and get -110 or give 7 and get +115,” but I’m not feeling cocky. And when I feel that way, Vegas usually gets me anyway. But … the Raiders got crushed by the Bengals last week at home. The Ravens are right around as good as the Bengals, maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse. I don’t think Oakland will get shellacked like it did last week, but I do think it’s a comfortable win for the Ravens.

$300 – New York Jets (+260 moneyline) at Indianapolis – So last week the Colts went to Buffalo and played against a team with a great defense, a new coach and an unproven QB with some potential – and got creamed. The Jets are … a team with a great defense, a new coach and a QB who is certainly not going to Canton, but who can win games in the NFL. The run game with Chris Ivory looked great in New York’s opening win against Cleveland – granted, it was Cleveland. But the Colts defense doesn’t look great by any stretch. If the Jets can get a lead and tee off on Andrew Luck, one of my preseason Super Bowl favorites could easily end up 0-2.