Bet the Mortgage: Week 17, 2016

It was more of the same in week 16. Andy, for the first time all season, fell below the $10,000 starting point in his bankroll, while Tony, after being close to mythically broke early on, inched back toward the break-even point.

With just one week left in the regular season, there’s nothing to hold back for – except, I suppose, for trying to hang onto their mythical money because they’re crappy bettors.

So here are the standings:

And here’s the last regular season installment of “Bet the Mortgage,” which should probably more accurately be known as “Do the Opposite.” Here goes:

Tony:

Another week, another 2-2 record, but another profitable week with the +170 payout on the 49ers beating the Rams. One more shot to make it to profitability.

$2,000 – New England (-10.5, +110) at Miami – Yes, 10.5 is a big number—but a +110 payout on the odds-on favorite for the Super Bowl, facing a division rival who is starting their backup QB? Even though Matt Moore is playing well, and the Patriots don’t appear to have much to play for, it would shock me if Bill Belichick called off the dogs for this one. And even if he does put in Jimmy Garoppolo at some point—he may be better than any other starting QB in the AFC East as it is.

$1,500 – Seattle (-10.5, +110) at San Francisco – Another big number with a +110 payout. The 49ers lost their biggest offensive weapon in Week 16 with Carlos Hyde suffering an MCL tear, and while the Seahawks lost Tyler Lockett to an even more gruesome injury (fantasy relevant question: if your knee and foot aren’t on the ground, but your ankle is, are you down? I could have used that 6 points), they’ve simply got too many weapons for the 49ers to keep pace.

$2,500 – Dallas (+4, -110) at Philadelphia – Week 17 is strange—Dallas is getting points heading to Philly, presumably due to fear that the Cowboys will rest guys, with the top seed locked up. But here’s the thing—with their offensive line—which can’t simply be rested for a whole game—not to mention Tony Romo, Darren McFadden, Alfred Morris & company—the Cowboys should still beat a Philly team that has nothing but pride on the line.

$500 – New York Giants (+325 money line) over Washington – Similarly, presumably just because the Giants are already in the playoffs, and Washington needs a win, the Giants are currently 8 to 9 point dogs, and paying out ridiculously on the money line. Sure, there’s a chance that they rest some guys—but against a division rival, the only guy I could easily see getting significant time off would be Odell Beckham Jr, simply so he doesn’t end up going nuclear on Josh Norman again. But even there, at +325, I’m willing to take a chance.

Andy: What a joke I’ve been lately. And now I have to not only pick what games to bet but also figure out whether the teams involved will be motivated or not? Sigh. It’s a good thing this is pretend money.

$3,000 – New England (-10, even) at Miami – The Patriots have still not clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Dolphins know they’ll be playing Wild Card weekend. I’d obviously have been more comfortable with this bet at the opening number of -6 rather than the current number, but I think the motivation for New England causes them to play with some desperation and makes for a comfortable win.

$3,000 – Seattle (-10, +105) at San Francisco – It sounds like the 49ers don’t care much about playing for Chip Kelly’s job. The Seahawks will be playing San Francisco knowing there is a sliver of a chance they can still end up with a bye if New Orleans can upset Atlanta. Yes, Seattle is minus some key players heading into the postseason – all the more reason to play hard and hope for a bye. This one could get ugly.

$2,000 – Green Bay (-3.5, even) at Detroit – I’d rather see the Lions win, but the Packers have the momentum and Detroit has been foundering the last couple weeks. I think Green Bay wins by double-digits.

$500 – Carolina (+200 money line) at Tampa Bay – The Panthers showed up in week 15, upsetting the Redskins by 11. So it seems they are still playing with some pride. The Bucs made a marvelous second half of the season run but it’s all but certain they’re coming up a notch short for the playoffs. I think they struggle to stay motivated and end the season with a disappointing loss.