Bet the Mortgage: Week 17, 2014 NFL Best Bets

As heavy as we hit the hypothetical books and as much as neither of us believes that breaking even in gambling is any better than a tie in a football game, neither of us has been able to do much more than tread water over the last month and change.

So, while we are far ahead of where we were last year through most of the season, we’re still both just slightly below breaking even.

I had a slightly better week 16 than Tony, winning two pretend $1,500 bets but losing my $2,000 and my upset. Tony was helped by his $1,000 moneyline bet on Atlanta. Hopefully, as we both go hard this last week, we make some noise – and hopefully they are shouts of joy and not screams of pain.

Here are the standings.

Andy: Well, we’re 17 weeks in and there has never been a point during the season when I felt like I really had the league figured out this year. Even in the midst of parity, I usually have a three to five week stretch of clarity where I think I’ve somewhat measured out who is good and who has given up. So it goes, I guess.

$3,000 – Green Bay (-9, +110) vs Detroit – I would like to see Detroit win this game, if only because there are too many Packers fans in shouting distance who will, no doubt, see another division championship and possible first-round bye as reason to crow about their team. But history is working against the Lions, who have not won in Wisconsin since 1991. So is the one-game loss of center Dominic Raiola, who consistently proves he’s a moron and an idiot. Matt Stafford’s not great in the elements and he frankly hasn’t been all season what I thought he would be. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers continues to look like the next “one of the best ever” signal callers. Detroit’s defense is tough. It might keep the Lions in the game for awhile. But I’m confident enough in the end result of this game that I gave an extra point-and-a-half for the +110 return offered at our favorite site, 5dimes.eu.

$2,000 – Arizona at San Francisco (under 36.5, -110) – The 49ers are favored by anywhere from 6.5 to 7 in this game. I was tempted to take those points and go with the Cardinals, as I think the 49ers have basically packed it in for the year. But I’m not confident Ryan Lindley and Logan Thomas can do enough to get the win for the birds. I am confident in the Cardinals defense, which has been strong up until last week’s game against Seattle. While the division likely goes to Seattle, I think Arizona would like to get the taste of that Seahawks debacle from a week ago out of their mouths. So I expect a low scoring game… now watch the fireworks begin.

$2,000 – Chicago at Minnesota (over 44, -110) – I am not as confident as many that the Vikings win this game. I think there’s a chance Jay Cutler comes into this game with an even bigger chip on his shoulder than normal – which could mean he drops trou completely or it could mean he throws for six TDs. Either way, he’s a master of garbage time, so there’s the likelihood of a couple scores there. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater seems to be kind of figuring things out. I think he’ll close the season with a solid game against the Bears ragged defense. This number is low – I don’t see a 24-21 game here, I see more of a 35-30 shootout.

$2,000 – Jacksonville (+405 moneyline) – Truth be told, there are not a lot of upsets I like this week. I would include this game in that mix. BUT … why is Houston -500? I get that the Texans should be favored, but they still are playing with a fourth-string QB who was on the street a couple weeks ago. They’re improved, but -500? I’d never make this much of a bet if we were dealing in real money. But I would put some coin on the Jags here just on the belief that the numbers are too big. And since it’s hypothetical money spent on mythical line, I’ll empty the bulk of the rest of my bank account on this game. Worst case? I left myself just enough bank to buy a flight home if I go 0-4 this week.

Tony: So it comes down to this…after leading most of the season, I’m sitting here with about $200 less than my brother. I can handle not getting to my goal of doubling my money, but losing to him would be terrible. And what makes it worse is, I sit here Saturday afternoon looking at the lines, and I’m not seeing a lot that I like…I may have waited too long this week to find the good deals.

$3,000 – Indianapolis (-7.5, +120) vs Tennessee – Andrew Luck and the Colts sank quite a few fantasy teams last week, but hopefully they’ll put it back together with a little less pressure this week. Tennessee is still in the hunt for the first overall pick, although it will take a loss and a Bucs win over the Saints to get it–meaning it’s not at all unrealistic, and if they’re smart, the coaches will figure out a way to make sure it works out.

$3,000 – Cleveland at Baltimore (under 39, -110) – I hate betting unders, but you have to have money in play when a guy goes from the practice squad to starting in one week. With a line hovering between 13 and 14.5 points, no way am I going to be confident enough in the Ravens offense to cover, but there’s no reason this one shouldn’t end up 19-9 in a field goal fest.

$1,500 – Buffalo at New England (over 43.5, -110) – The Bills defense is stout, no doubt. But the Patriots have shredded some good defenses this year, and I don’t see them letting up with the top seed on the line. The Bills offense hasn’t been the best, but they’ve only had one game in their last five scoring under 20 points. I’ll take a 27-20 game here all the way to the bank.

$1,650 – San Diego Chargers (+175 moneyline) over Kansas City – I’m dumbfounded to have found this one at +175, but I’ll take it. Normally I wouldn’t be picking the Chargers to go into Kansas City and win outright–cover a minimal line, sure, but winning outright in Kansas City is tough. However, with Alex Smith unable to play through a lacerated spleen, Chase Daniel will make his second career start. You have to assume that Andy Reid will see the error in his ways from the last few weeks, and will finally hand the ball to Jamaal Charles 28 times, and maybe Knile Davis about 15, to minimize what Daniel can do–but that’s a big assumption, with Reid. And while Daniel may not mean a significant drop in the overall passing attack, I am counting on him making 1-2 significant mistakes that will swing the game in the direction of the Bolts.