Bet the Mortgage: Week 17, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Tony had been in quite a tailspin since learning that he had miscalculated the bet results through the season’s first 12 weeks, but he got a much needed boost in week 16. He hit just two of his four bets, but one was a $1,000 hit on the Giants’ +370 moneyline win over Detroit. It didn’t bring him back to even for the season but it got that mark within reach.

Andy on the other hand suffered a number of hard luck losses. His own $500 moneyline bet missed by a point, when Dallas scored a last minute comeback against Washington. His $1,250 bet on the Denver/Houston moneyline also missed by a single point. So instead of a nice, tidy, solid profit for the week, he sunk further into the gambling abyss.

Here’s where we stand heading into the final week of the regular season. When this thing ends, we’ll have to start studying up for next year, when we have to do better than what we’ve done this ridiculously bad gambling season.

Andy’s Bets

Week 17 is always hard, especially given that there generally are a number of teams that have clinched their playoff spot and resting starters. So what I generally focus on is finding teams with motivation. That wasn’t difficult this week, given how many teams still have something to play for. At the end of the day, what does it matter? I’ve had a brutal season. My bets have sucked. So I’m laying out the big bucks, emptying my bankroll and shooting for the moon. Here goes.

$1,423 – Denver (-13, +105) vs Oakland – After looking far more competent than expected in going 3-4 through the first seven, the Raiders have gone 1-7 in their last eight. In so doing, the team is 0-4 and has given up 150 points in its last four games. Meanwhile, as good as Denver has been, the Broncos have shown vulnerability the last month and still have not clinched home field advantage for the playoffs. A win, at home, does so and I’m guessing they go out and stick it to the Raiders big time. The line is 12 in most of the sites we checked, but 5dimes.eu has it listed at 13 for the better payoff and I think that’s a good bet.

$1,400 – New England (-10, +110) vs Buffalo – Similarly to Denver, the Patriots’ seeding is not set. New England could have home field overall or could fall out of a bye week altogether. I don’t know that the Pats have what it takes to make a huge run in the playoffs this season with the firepower the team has lost on both sides of the ball but I don’t think they’re going to let the Bills stand in the way of a comfortable week 17 win and a week off. The game is at 8.5 points in most spots, but 5dimes.eu, again, has better odds for a point-and-a-half and I’ll jump at it.

$1,400 – New Orleans (-13, +105) vs Tampa Bay – I was between this game and the Philadelphia/Dallas tilt for my last pointspread bet of the regular season. But with Tony Romo out and both the Eagles and Cowboys ridiculously unpredictable this season, I went with the Saints. New Orleans started off the season on fire, but heads into week 17 slumping and still not assured of a playoff spot. After a couple rough offensive weeks, I think Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham are going to want to reassert some dominance in their efforts to clinch. The Bucs have been a game opponent for parts of the season’s second half, but it looks like coach Greg Schiano is on his way out the door and I could easily see Tampa getting down early and giving up.

$1,000 – Kansas City (+365 moneyline) at San Diego – This one is admittedly a bit of a stretch, but only because Kansas City could be resting its starters. Well, I guess there also is the fact that just a few weeks ago the Chargers put the wood to the Chiefs pretty well. That said, Kansas City, despite being the only playoff team in the AFC that already knows its seeding, does have the incentive of ending a rival’s playoff hopes. And they might want to eradicate the taste of last week’s dreadful performance against Indianapolis. And, despite being highly criticized for fielding a mediocre offense, the team has scored a total of 406 points (behind only Denver and New England in the AFC) and has a +128 point differential on the season (behind only Denver in the AFC). So … ridiculous to take this team on the moneyline? I don’t think so. If they come to play they absolutely can beat the Chargers.

Tony’s Bets

The big question for the final week, as I sit on the verge of actually going ahead for the season—do I try to play it relatively safe, and push into the positive, or do I go for broke?

Anyone who’s been to Vegas with me knows the easy answer to that one…

$2,500 – San Francisco (+1.5, +105) at Arizona – I had this typed in as the 49ers -1.5 at first, and was still happy about it. To get a point and a half, plus a +105 payout?  I’ll sign up for that.

$2,500 – New England (-8, -105) vs Buffalo – Not feeling super great about this one, but I think a lot of the Bills will be thinking about the offseason by the middle of the second quarter.

$2,500 – Cincinnati (-7, -Even) vs Baltimore – Another tough one, at 7 points—but Cincy at home is tough, and I still think the Ravens have been a huge disappointment this year.

$1,686 – Kansas City (+320 moneyline) at San Diego – Just realized that this is the same upset that Andy took (albeit my odds are worse).  Not surprised that Kansas City is an underdog on the road, given how they’ve played the last few weeks—but was surprised at how big of a dog they are.  I’ll take the potential for the huge payout here.