Bet the Mortgage: Week 16, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Two weeks left—last week saw Andy make a small impact at getting back to positivity with a 2-2 week, while my tailspin to the gutter continued. At this point, the only thing I can say positive about my year at the fake sportsbook is that I’ve gotten game right than Andy—and with the way things have been going, even that might not be the case after this week…

Without any further adieu, here are this week’s bets:

Andy’s Bets:

$1,250 – Dallas at Washington: (Over 53.5, -110) – Dallas has been scoring points, but can’t stop anyone with the beaten up defense it’s fielding. Washington can’t stop anyone either, but the offense put up a nice number last week with Kirk Cousins at QB. And the Skins have nothing to lose, so I’m guessing they’ll pull out all stops in an effort to keep one of their chief rivals out of the playoffs.

$1,250 – Denver at Houston: (Over 51.5, -110) – Peyton Manning gets a reprieve from the cold outdoors. With Kansas City back to running neck and neck with Denver, the Broncos’ offense will go back to running roughshod over its opponents. And its defense will go back to giving up more points than it should.

$1,000 – Cincinnati (-7.5, +110) vs Minnesota – My initial plan was to make this my upset of the week. Then we were followed by Pacman Jones. Thinking this might be an omen, I looked at some stats. The Bengals dropped a growler last week at Pittsburgh, but this is a different team at home. Cincy has dropped 42, 41 and 49 on its last three opponents at Paul Brown Stadium. They’re 6-0 with wins over New England, Indianapolis, Green Bay and Pittsburgh this season. And they’ve gone over the number in four of six home games. If I could bet more than four games I’d bet the over on this one too, but I’m definitely willing to give up an extra 1.5 points to get +110 odds with a team that plays that well on its home turf.

$500 – Upset of the Week – Washington (Moneyline +150) vs Dallas – I think Jason Garrett, Tony Romo and Co. have their hands around their throats and they’re starting to squeeze. This could resemble the Packers game, in that Dallas could score a lot of points and even take a lead into the latter stages of the game. But if it’s close in the end, it’d be easy to see this one taking the Cowboys’ 2013 season down the drain.

Tony’s Bets:

Since Andy got his bets in before me (again), is it wrong that I am half tempted to just take the same bets as him, but put more on the games?  Or just bet counter to him on everything? Yes, it’s come to that… But, since that would just feel wrong, here are some bets that you can safely go opposite of…

$750 – Kansas City (-7, Even) vs Indianapolis  – The game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs have been slowly but surely opening up their offense over the last few weeks. Indianapolis has already won their division, more due to the ineptitude of the other teams in the south than their dominance—this is a team that still hasn’t found their identity since Reggie Wayne went down.

$1,250 – Denver (-11.5, +115) at Houston – Like Andy and his Bengals pick (which is now up to -10 to get +110), I’ll give the extra 1.5 points in this one to buy the +115 odds. Texans fans should be praying that this bet wins—a loss merely helps their draft position, but a blowout may help make sure that Wade Phillips doesn’t get his inexplicable fourth head coaching position (now that he’s in his also inexplicable 3^rd stint as an interim head coach).

$750 – Arizona at Seattle: (Over 43, -110) – I debated between the +12 for the Cardinals and the over—I’m finally willing to admit that the Seachickens are the best team in the NFC (especially when at home), but I still don’t think they’re as dominant as everyone else seems to think.  I do think the Cardinals will keep it closer than 12, unless Seattle puts up some late points when icing the victory—but either way, the over should hit.

$1,000 – Upset  of the Week: New York Giants (+370) at Detroit – If I’m going to go down, let’s go down in a blaze of glory, right?  Secretly (or not so much now, I guess) I’m hoping that my luck betting turns this one into a Detroit blowout—or at least a high scoring nail biter. That would probably help me win some more real money in fantasy football. But at least if that doesn’t work out, and the Lions pull their traditional choke job, I’ll have another $3,700 in fake money towards…mediocrity?