Bet the Mortgage: Week 16, 2014 NFL Best Bets

So at the beginning of the season, Tony proclaimed that he found breaking even boring and said by season’s end he hoped to have either doubled his imaginary bankroll or crapped out completely. Gambling is a funny thing, though, and with two weeks left in the 2014 campaign, here he sits, $300 below the original pretend $10,000 that we started with.

All of this is cute and nice – it’s not terribly frustrating, because again, it’s not real cash. But on the other hand it is a bit maddening, because while we started out well through the first, say, two-thirds of the season. But as we began to play with a bit of mythical casino cash and get more aggressive with the betting, our results have gotten worse.

But that’s how gambling works. Win some, lose some, and as long as you don’t end up with broken legs in the middle of the desert, you’re probably doing alright. So here are the standings.

And here are our bets. In an attempt to change our luck this week, we’ll let Tony take the lead.

Tony: While I hate picking bets this early—especially because the payouts haven’t moved into positive figures to entice betting—it certainly beats getting in on only the last 3 games of the weekend. I managed to basically tread water doing that, but with two weeks left, it’s time for guts and glory.

$2,500 – Seattle Seahawks (-8, -110) at Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals were struggling with Drew Stanton replacing Carson Palmer. Now they say Stanton is out for a month—does anyone thing the Cardinals will be playing in a month? Their defense may slow down Seattle, but the Seahawks may only need three field goals to cover this line, barring a defensive or special teams score from Arizona.

$2,500 – New England Patriots (-11.5, +115) at New York Jets – Like I said in my survivor pick, several teams at this point are smelling the finish line—not looking forward to the playoffs, but looking forward to being done with their season. And in the Jets case, done with their coach and general manager most likely as well. And for about 51 of the guys, possibly their quarterback(s). Add in a sadistic Bill Belichick that will beat up on any team just for fun—much less a team he despises—and things could get ugly in Jersey.

$2,500 – Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, +115) at Dallas Cowboys – I have to wonder if this line will move based on news of DeMarco Murray’s status, but I have the Colts winning outright—so getting 2½ points AND a +115 payout? Since there are other moneyline upsets I like this week, I’ll grab this one for sure.

$1,000 – Atlanta Falcons (moneyline +220) over New Orleans Saints – In this battle for control of the putrid, stinking NFC South, the Saints just haven’t been the same team at home as of late—they’ve lost four in a row in the supposedly friendly confines of the Superdome. The Falcons are 2-1 in their last three on the road, including a loss in Green Bay where their offense played well. I’ll feel more comfortable here if they get Julio Jones back, but I actually think right now that Atlanta might be the team to beat in the NFC South. And get beat they will, in the first round of the playoffs, but that’s another story for another week.

Andy: I’ve been a complete crap show for about the last month. It happens just about every season when I start thinking I’ve got the league figured out. Now I feel as though I have no clue – which is probably a good thing. Two weeks left, plenty of bankroll with which to make a turnaround – and no idea what to do with it. But here goes, anyway.

$1,500 – Minnesota (+6.5, -105) at Miami – I usually avoid placing bets on my home team, but this line I don’t understand. The Vikings are not playing great on the road, but they are playing relatively close. Last week was a two point loss at Detroit. Three weeks before that a three point loss at home to Green Bay. In mid-October, a one point loss to Buffalo. Yet a Dolphins team that has played about as well as I have gambled the last month is giving anywhere from 6.5 to 7.5? Teddy Bridgewater has shown some relative competence the last few weeks. Ryan Tannehill never throws the ball more than a couple yards downfield. I’ll probably be wrong, but I see no reason Minnesota can’t at least keep this game within a field goal.

$2,000 – Baltimore (-5.5, -110) at Houston – Thad Lewis. 13^th Century poet? Children’s book writer? Submissive cross dres… nevermind. No, guess again. Fourth-string QB for the Texans – which means in the wake of injuries to Tom Savage, Ryan Mallett and Ryan Fitzpatrick, he gets the start this week. He was out of football a few weeks ago. Now he’s playing against a relatively hot Baltimore team motivated to stay in the playoff race. I don’t feel confident in many of the lines this week, but if I was in Vegas, this is one I would hit hard.

$1,500 – Green Bay (-11.5, +115) at Tampa Bay – One thing that makes me uncomfortable this week is that I am riding three road teams. I was looking at the Saints at -7, +120 against Atlanta, then I realized that the NFC South is a complete train wreck this year and that game probably ends up in a forfeit tie. Aaron Rodgers rarely has games like he did against Buffalo. I think Tampa is a perfect antidote for such a wretched performance. I could go the over in this one (48.5) too – the Packers might reach that number themselves. So screw it. Yeah, it’s a road team Sunday.

$300 – Indianapolis (+140 moneyline) at Dallas – So, if I am reading the AFC standings correctly, the Colts still have a shot at a bye and home field advantage. That’s plenty of reason to show up Sunday afternoon. And I remain utterly unconvinced by the Cowboys. They’re better than I thought – but this is still Jerry Jones’ team with Tony Romo at QB and Jason Garrett as coach. DeMarco Murray broke a finger last week. No reason to believe the Colts can’t best Dallas in this one.

To see straight up picks for this week, click here.