Bet the Mortgage: Week 15, 2016

IF you’re going to go 1-3, get the right one correct.

Andy did so, nailing a $2,000 bet at +120 on Atlanta over the hapless Rams. If only he had wagered more. The remainder of his bets did not hit, but their total value on the line totaled $2,000. So, he came out $400 ahead.

Tony’s luck was not as good. After riding a solid winning streak for several weeks, his one win was on Cincinnati beating up even-more-hapless-Cleveland. His three misses tallied him a $1,602 loss for the week.

Here are the standings to date:

And here are our pretend wagers for this week:

Andy: I’ve been riding a lot of underdogs of late. This week I’m going mostly with the favorites.

$1,500 – Baltimore (-6, -105) vs Philadelphia – Since starting 3-0, Philadelphia has gone 2-8. During the last four, all defeats, the Eagles have lost by double digits in three. Baltimore needs a big win coming off its disappointing performance Monday against New England. They rebound with a solid, convincing win here.

$1,000 – Seattle at Los Angeles: Over 38 – Seattle has run into a couple of surging teams in losses to Tampa Bay and Green Bay the last three weeks. In between those games, the Hawks put up 40 on Carolina. Prior to the loss to the Bucs, they’d put up 26, 31 and 31 against Philadelphia, New England and Buffalo. The Rams usually play Seattle tough, but it’s hard to see a close game with Los Angeles replacing coaches during a short week. I could see the Hawks hitting this number by themselves.

$1,000 – Green Bay (-7, +110) at Chicago – This line was a bit of an outlier. Most were at -6.5, -115 for the Packers. I’ll give the extra half point for the better payoff. If Green Bay plays like it did last week against Seattle – and its resurgence of late suggests that’s a solid possibility – the Bears will not keep this game within a touchdown.

$400 – Tampa Bay (+260 money line) at Dallas – There is a chance Dallas rebounds from two lackluster games and puts the Bucs back in their place. But Tampa has beaten some good teams amid its five-game win streak. This would be a huge win in the Bucs’ efforts to get back to the playoffs and continue the turnaround season.

Tony: Annnnnnd … we’re back to another brutal week.  Gone is the good feeling about things, and probably any chance of breaking even…at least with my old strategy. Time to once again, go big or go home (or into hiding).

$2,500 – Green Bay (-7, +105) at Chicago – I hate to say it, but the Pack seems to have figured some stuff out at the right time of the year. And the Bears players are likely once again looking ahead on the schedule saying “Just make it through 3 more weeks…)

$2,500 – New England (-3.5, +105) at Denver – Tom Brady, on the road, against a tough defense. Where have we heard this one before?

$2,000 – New Orleans at Arizona: Over 50 (-110) – I’ve been avoiding the O/U bets the last few weeks, so let’s jump back with a big number–the Cardinals seem uninterested in playing defense, while the Saints just continue to be incapable. Would consider the over at 60, if the payoff was there.

$1,000 – Tampa Bay (money line +250) at Dallas – If the payout was better, I’d be taking the Bucs with points all day here–but as is, it wouldn’t shock me if they pull this one out. Their defense is tougher than most people are willing to admit, and their offense can easily score against the Cowboys’ defense, which isn’t nearly as good when it actually has to stay on the field.