Bet the Mortgage: Week 15, 2014 NFL Best Bets

We’ve started having some real ups and downs with these bets. Good thing we got off to a good start, but the struggles of the last three or four weeks have left Tony digging into his own bankroll and me right on the brink.

Still, we have life. And with just three weeks left in the regular season, it’s time to start ramping up and getting aggressive. After all, who wants to play it safe with a hypothetical bankroll.

Here are the standings:

And here are the bets:

Andy: Well, the Green Bay/Atlanta shootout Monday both helped and hurt me, but the results overall kept me on the good side of even last week. There’s only three weeks left and I’m playing with house money, so it’s time to start getting a little reckless with my pretend bankroll. So here goes:

$2,500 – St. Louis (-4.5, -105) vs Arizona – I don’t like betting on Thursday games, but there’s too much to like here. Arizona is 10-3, but 1-2 in the last three. The Cardinals have not scored more than 18 points since Carson Palmer got hurt. Meanwhile, St. Louis is riding two straight shutouts and has given up 75 points in six games – but that includes three defensive TDs against them. So the defense is riding a streak in which it has given up fewer than 10 points per game. I don’t see Arizona getting into the 20s here, particularly with Andre Ellington out for the year.

$2,500 – Green Bay at Buffalo: Under 50.5 (-110) – Green Bay is hot, but is playing better at home. I definitely think the Packers stay at least warm here. But Buffalo hasn’t played a game that went over 41 since October 26 – that’s been due in part to its good defense and in part to its bad offense. Packers win, probably covering the 4.5 points they’re giving in the process. But Buffalo keeps it close enough to keep the score below 50.5.

$2,500 – Indianapolis (-7.5, +120) vs Houston – I don’t actually love this number, but truthfully there’s not a lot I do like this week. This is a game the Colts should win comfortably. I’m a bit worried about the possibility that Arian Foster has a big game and helps the Texans keep it close – the extra half point is a bit worrisome. But it’s late in the season and it’s time to go big or go home.

$300 – Minnesota (+355 moneyline) at Detroit – There aren’t many moneyline upsets that intrigue me this week. This one is no exception. However, the Vikings defense is playing the pass better. The Lions just don’t seem completely on track yet. And Teddy Bridgewater looks like he might be starting to figure some things out. So … what the hell.

Tony: Well, that sucked. Not only did I lose almost half my bankroll last week, but I pulled the equivalent of sleeping in and missing the 10am kickoff in Vegas–I had my bets ready to go, but forgot to get them in.  So I’m stuck with the late games now.

$1,000 – Seattle (-7.5, -110) vs. San Francisco – I heard some talk on a local radio station about this one–wish I remembered all of the points made. At the end of the day, I think Seattle is better at covering late in the season and against each other–and even though I don’t trust the Seahawks offense, I trust San Francisco as a whole even less.

$1,000 – Philadelphia (-3.5, +105) vs Dallas – Weird game–you can get a +105 payout from either side, depending on if you go -3.5 points or +3 points.  I really have no idea who the smart pick is here–but I’ve been waiting for the wheels to come off Dallas for a while now, and I could use a big night from the Eagles passing game.

$1,000 – Dallas @ Philadelphia: Over 54.5 (-103) – Another one I probably wouldn’t normally bet, but I don’t trust the Bears/Saints to make the over, and I hate betting unders, so I’m stuck here.

$300 – Chicago Bears (+135 moneyline) over New Orleans Saints – Honestly, I don’t see this happening. The Saints are better on the road this year, and the Bears have been dismal at home. And I could use an even bigger game from the Bears passing game. But with limited choices come bets you don’t necessarily like. So let’s roll.