Bet the Mortgage: Week 14, 2016

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Andy and Tony went .500 last week, pocketed a small hypothetical profit and … yawn.

This was a lot more entertaining space to write when Tony’s bankroll was heading underwater and when Andy looked like he might be able to fund a mythical retirement.

Nonetheless, our pickers are back for another week of fantastic pretend gambling exploits.

Here’s where they stand.

And here is their outlook on week 14:

Tony: Another week, another small profit by going 2-2.  Not going to hit the big bucks this way, but might be able to enjoy an offseason without looking over my shoulder to see if Guido is coming to break my kneecaps.

$1,125 – Oakland (+3, +105) at Kansas City – I realized the Chiefs are good, and they’re at home…but getting three points AND a +105 payout on the team that’s ahead of them in the standings?  I’ll take that shot.

$1,125 – Denver (+1, -110) at Tennessee – Another game where I understand that the Titans are better than they’ve been, and they’re at home—but can they hold up against the Broncos defense?  It might be a 14-10 game, but I still see the Broncos on the winning side.

$1,125 – Cincinnati (-5.5, -110) at Cleveland – Three picks, three road teams. I was thinking the Browns had played decent this year, despite losing all their games…then I checked the scores. Thoughts like that might explain my betting record this year.

$375 – Jacksonville (+160 money line) vs Minnesota – I don’t love much on the positive side of the money line this week, so I’m betting against my heart—at least this way, if my hometown team manages to piss away another game, I’ll make some coin in my imaginary sports book.

Andy: Anyone getting bored with 2-2 yet? I guess I should be happy – most weeks it’s enough to put me slightly on the right side of even. But most gamblers aren’t aiming for slightly anything.

$2,000 – Atlanta (-7, +120) at Los Angeles – Maybe I am a sucker. Maybe all of us are. Four of the five of us took the Falcons to beat the Rams in the survivor pool. It seems like a no brainer. The Rams have scored 10 or fewer points in five of the last six games. Jared Goff is in learning mode. Atlanta can’t be stopped. How I can get a +120 return on this one is beyond me. The line feels too small … often when I feel this way, there ends up being a catch. Could be, but I’ll be really surprised about this one.

$1,000 – Denver (Pick ‘em, even) at Tennessee – Yes, the Titans have been better than expected this season. But Denver is still in the playoff hunt and is still the defending Super Bowl champion – which means nothing this year, I acknowledge, except … they are still better than Tennessee. They should be favored in this game. I’ll take this bet all day long.

$600 – Seattle (-2.5, -115) at Green Bay – Hmm. I’m heavy on road teams this week. There’s simply not a lot I’m confident in on this week’s lines. A lot of these could go either way. Hell, this one could. But I’m not sold on the Packers’ return to glory. If they beat Seattle, yeah, I’ll buy in. Until they rock a quality team, they’re still on the ropes.

$400 – Oakland (+140 money line) at Kansas City – There are a few money line games I’m interested in this week. I like Cleveland to get its first win against Cincy. That said, I like this one better. The Raiders have a better offense than the Chiefs and its strength matches up with the pass defense deficiencies in Kansas City. Plus, Oakland has lost four straight to Kansas City and that’s a bit of an anomaly in a rivalry – especially when the teams are relatively evenly matched, as they are now. Derek Carr over Alex Smith … bank on it.