Bet the Mortgage: Week 14, 2014 NFL Best Bets

It was another rough one in week 13. We combined for an 0-8 mark. So two of the last three weeks have been brutal. We’re still up for the season, but the margins are shrinking some. Gotta get back on a roll or we’ll be back into our own hypothetical pockets rather than playing with hypothetical house money.

Here are the standings:

And here are the picks:

Andy: Good gravy. And turkey. And stuffing. But the bets? Not good at all. We’ve been pretty solid most of the season, but the last three weeks we’ve more resembled the unknowing clowns from last year. It’s time to turn things around – only four weeks left, time to get aggressive.

$2,000 – Green Bay (-13, +105) vs Atlanta – Monday night in Lambeau. The Packers have been on fire. The Falcons can’t rush the passer, nor can they protect their own. This one could … should get ugly.

$1,500 – Atlanta vs Green Bay: Over 55.5 – As mentioned above, the Packers should win this one big. Green Bay could get 80 percent of this number by itself. But the Falcons will get enough in garbage time make this number seem small.

$1,500 – Dallas (-3.5) at Chicago – There are a couple reasons I think this is going to come through. First, I foolishly put a couple of fantasy football teams in the hands of Jay Cutler. He’s proven once again incapable of reaching his potential and I suspect he’ll finish screwing me and the Bears fans off this weekend. Second, the Bears as a whole just don’t seem to much give a crap anymore.

$400 – Jacksonville (+200 moneyline) vs Houston – I honestly had no idea who to pick for the upset this week. There aren’t a lot of lines that seem off this week, at least to me. But the Jags have a shot at home to take out the Texans again. So I’ll throw a couple bucks behind this one.

Tony: Well, that plain sucked. Back at it this week … but what a terrible week for it.

$2,500 – Green Bay Packers (-13, +105) vs Atlanta Falcons – Despite last week, I still think the Packers defense is a fraud. At least this week, we should know for sure. If the Pack can’t beat Atlanta by 13, they aren’t as good as everyone thinks. And if they do win by more than 13, then…at least I’ve got a fake $2,625 extra in my pocket for it.

$2,000 – Indianapolis (-3.5, -110) vs Cleveland – This one scares me a bit, since the Colts are outside on the road, and there is the potential for Johnny Manziel to energize the Browns. But I think this line has adjusted for that—and I agree that the Colts should still win by a TD here.

$2,000 – New England at San Diego: Over 50.5, (-110) – An afternoon game on the west coast should allow Tom Brady to get back on track after a rough week (comparatively) in Green Bay. And the Chargers should still actually be able to put up some points, especially in garbage time (assuming there is some).

$250 – Carolina (moneyline +405) at New Orleans – Not really any moneyline games I love this week, so I’ll go big. The Saints should walk in this one, but they haven’t actually been the same team at home this year, and the NFC South is a mess, so…why couldn’t Carolina pull off the upset?

For week 14 picks, click here.