Bet the Mortgage: Week 14, 2013 NFL Best Bets

Updated: 11:16 AM Central Time

It’s fitting that last week was Thanksgiving because we gambled like a bunch of turkeys.

After discovering the mathematical error that had been artificially pumping up our respective bankrolls for 12 weeks, we found out we had much less to work with than originally thought. And now those wallets are even lighter.

I hit one of my games, so I salvaged a bit of a brutal week, but my brother missed all four of his predictions, dropping his bankroll from positive to negative for the first time in several weeks. Here’s where we stand:

Andy’s Bets:

I can pick games straight up, but put a point spread in front of me and I’m absolutely useless this season. The bad “luck” continued last week when I missed three more games, narrowly missing out on my upset of the week by about 30 points. But I’m not a quitter. So I’m going to keep ramping up my bets until there’s nothing left there to play with. I think I’ve found some winners this week anyway, so no worries.

$750 – Tennessee at Denver: (Over 49, -110) – This one actually seems to work most of the time. Peyton Manning is having the season of his life and the Broncos defense isn’t. So I think there are plenty of points to be had here. What more needs to be said?

$750 – Detroit at Philadelphia: (Over 54, -107) – Philly’s defense against the pass has improved a bit in recent weeks, but does anyone really think the Eagles have the guns to cover Calvin Johnson? And the Lions defense is no real threat either. Nick Foles should be able to carve these guys up. I’ll probably be wrong again, but I see this game lighting up the scoreboard like some of those video football games.

$750 – Dallas (Pick ‘em, even) at Chicago – Chicago can’t defend the run or the pass. Well, Dallas can’t either, but they do get a couple of their better defensive players back this weekend. But … I’ve said this time and time again. I’ll probably get burned again, but if the Cowboys want to prove themselves to be real contenders to go anywhere, this is the type of game they have to win. I think they do.

$300 – Upset of the Week – Jacksonville (Moneyline +165) vs Houston – There aren’t a lot of true upsets I like this week. But this one throws me. The Jaguars have won three of four after their putrid start. Houston has lost 10 in a row, including one to Jacksonville a couple weeks ago.  Not that the Jags are going to suddenly threaten for a playoff spot, but why are they not favored in this game? I’ve fallen into the Thursday night trap several times. I’m probably doing so again right now. But I don’t see it. Jags continue their hot streak.

Tony’s Bets:

In addition to not being real happy with my math snafu or my bets last week, I’ve been dealing with some kind of stomach bug that has been keeping me out of the “sports book.” With just four regular season games left, feeling like it’s time to go big or go home on some bets, so I can either blow Andy out of the water–or beat him to the bottom of the barrel.

$1,000 – Buffalo (+2.5, +105) at Tampa Bay – Tampa Bay has been playing better as of late, and they are at home. But I still think the Bills are the better team, and…well, I thought they had been playing better–but in looking at their recent games, maybe not so much. But what the hell, my logic hasn’t been very sound as of late anyway.

$1,000 – Kansas City (-3, -110) at Washington – Has anyone else noticed that the Redskins aren’t the only NFL team with a Native American name/mascot?  I realize Chiefs doesn’t have the same negative connotation as Redskins, but just something I’ve noticed as the issue grows bigger in Washington. And if you think the Chiefs can’t head into Washington and scalp the Redskins, you haven’t been paying attention to either team this year.

$1,000 – Carolina at New Orleans (Over 47, -105) – Carolina’s defense screams under in this one, but they haven’t faced many offenses like New Orleans (feels like I’ve written that before). The Saints have had three relatively low scoring games in a row, but two of them against defenses on par with the Panthers–and their division hopes are likely on the line in this game.

$500 – Upset of the Week – Minnesota (+248 moneyline) at Baltimore – If I’m going to go up or down in a blaze of glory, I might as well break my rules along the way, and bet on the home team.