Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2017

Well, the past couple years Tony has blown through his mythical bankroll and gone into pretend hiding at about this time while he fends off guys named Vinny and Guido.

This year it’s Andy’s turn.

A brutal 0-4 week has left him with just $184 from his original $10,000. He did find a mythical fool who was dumb enough to give him a mythical line of credit so he could make it through the season.

Meanwhile, Tony seems to have figured something out. Getting bored with staying close to even every week, he started throwing around big numbers – and it paid off. He had his best week of the season, at least cash wise.

Here are the standings:

Andy: Well, studying hard didn’t work. Going with my gut didn’t work. Maybe I just need to start betting with someone else’s hypothetical money. This is ridiculous. Do the opposite of what I am doing here and you’ll probably be fine.

$1,000 – Minnesota (+2.5, -105) at Atlanta – I usually stay away from my home team, but this one jumps out a bit. The Vikings have won seven in a row and the Falcons have been fighting the old Super Bowl hangover all season. Perhaps Atlanta comes into this game desperate, but I’m sticking with the purple anyway.

$1,000 – New England (-8.5, -110) at Buffalo – One team I feel confident picking almost every week is New England. The Patriots are rolling again and, while the Bills righted the ship with a win against Kansas City last weekend, I just don’t see that playing out this week.

$1,000 – Oakland (-9, -110) vs N.Y. Giants – It’s pretty clear the Giants are tanking. Eli Manning’s former teammates reacted poorly to news of his benching. I’m guessing it’s not going over real well in the locker room either. I could see this one really getting out of hand.

$500 – Seattle (+210 money line) vs Philadelphia – I almost went San Francisco here, as the beginning of the Jimmy Garoppolo era is clearly going to bring back the 49ers’ glory days. But instead I went with Seattle. They are beat up and they aren’t as good as Philadelphia this season, but they are a tough beat at home and they need this one to stay in the race for a playoff spot. Likely? Maybe not. Worth a couple bucks? Sure, why not.

Tony: I should have paid more attention to what I was doing last week–I can’t remember now if I was using logic, or my form of logic, in picking those games.

$2,500 – New England (-9, -105) at Buffalo – One of the few times in recent weeks that the Patriots line hasn’t moved much.  The Pats are 7-4 against the spread this year, and I think they make it 8-4 this week.

$2,500 – Pittsburgh (-5, -110) at Cincinnati – The line opened up at 6.5, and has actually moved closer–opposite of what I would have guessed. Both teams are 6-5 against the spread–but Pittsburgh is just way better.

$2,500 –  Carolina at New Orleans: Over 48 (-110) – Couple of teams that can put up points, playing inside, against defenses that have been pretty pedestrian. Seems like a safer bet than playing the under (42) in the Oakland/Giants game, even if Geno Smith leads the Giants to being shut out.

$500 – Cleveland (+700 moneyline) at LA Chargers – I’ve got a lead here, so I’m going for the throat. I’ve seen guarantees on Reddit that Josh Gordon will personally put up about 700+ fantasy points this week–but I don’t see him putting up more than 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. In all seriousness, I don’t see this upset happening–but stranger things have happened.