Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2016

After a horrid start, Tony is now starting to talk about getting back to even someday. Andy is … wallowing in a little up, a little down. Boring.

Tony’s 3-1 mark was one gutty pick away from being an undefeated week. Andy was let down by the hobbled Angry-Tom-Brady-to-Rob-Gronkowski duo. Will he move on or is he stuck on them?

Here are the standings:

It’s week 13. This has gone fast. Only five more weeks of this crap, err, I mean these bets to go… here’s another blind shot in the dark:

Tony: Looks like I should have gone bigger and bolder last week—if I’d gone with my gut on Tampa Bay at +215 against Seattle, I’d have been 4-0 and probably looking at possibly breaking back to even this week.  So, here’s a sucker bet if I’ve ever seen one … stay with me on the hottest streak I’ve seen in two years, or assume that it will all come tumbling down?

$1,475 – Denver (-4, -110) at Jacksonville – The Broncos offense has picked up some steam in recent weeks, while the Jaguars have mastered putting up garbage points late to make games look closer than they are. With Denver’s defense, that garbage time might not work so well this week.

$1,025 – Kansas City (+3.5, -105) at Atlanta – The Falcons are sitting at 7-4 and on the top of the division, but the Chiefs are no slouch at 8-3 and 2^nd place in an even tougher division. This may be the toughest test that the Falcons have faced all year, and could also be a sneaky money line play at +170.

$1.075 – Detroit at New Orleans: Over 53.5 (-110) – The Saints are at home. The Lions aren’t bad, but they’re not likely to keep the Saints under 30.

$300 – Houston (+250 money line) at Green Bay – The only reason I’m grabbing Kansas City with the points rather than the money line is this game…the Packers may have turned the corner last week, but I’m willing to put a few hundred on the line that they still have underlying issues that will allow the Texans to keep it close, and maybe snag it late.

Andy: Sigh. I’m starting to think I’ll figure the 2016 season out just in time for 2017. Here goes.

$800 – Tampa Bay (+3.5, -105) at San Diego – I originally looked at taking the under on this game, only to do some research and learn that Tampa Bay is 5-2 in its last seven games and has given up just 63 points in the five wins. The steadily improving defense has allowed just 32 in the last three victories. The Bucs also are 4-1 on the road, including games at Atlanta, Carolina and Kansas City. That’s a solid and improving resume. San Diego won’t be a pushover. But the Chargers’ defense is giving up a lot right now. Upset in the making? Is it really an upset?

$800 – Dallas (-4, -110) at Minnesota – I’ve heard a couple of pundits, including former NFL Coach and Player Herm Edwards on the local ESPN affiliate, say the Vikings were going to win this game. I’m struggling to find the logic. The Cowboys run the ball well. Minnesota has struggled in recent weeks to stop the run. Dallas has not scored fewer than 24 points since opening day and has managed 30, 29, 35, 35, 27 and 31 since Oct. 16. During that same span, the Vikings have only broken the 16 mark twice in six games, five of which were losses. I hate betting on Thursday games. I hate betting on games involving my home town team. And I hate expecting that my home town team is about to take a shellacking. But unless the team can come up with some miracle cure for its offensive line and play an extra-inspired-let’s-win-one-for-Zimmer’s-detached-retina game, I think this one could get ugly.

$1,000 – New England (-14.5, +110) vs Los Angeles – Yep, Tom Brady is clearly hobbling with a knee thing. Yep, word just came out that Gronk’s back is bunged up and he’s going to miss a couple months. Yep, the Patriots have been just pedestrian the last couple weeks. It’s about the time when everyone starts sleeping on New England that the Patriots drop a 50 spot. I’m not ready to let go yet.

$400 – NY Giants (+225 money line) at Pittsburgh – There are a couple games this week where I see money line opportunities. Washington at +115 against Arizona – would that be an upset? Barely. Lions at +220 against the Saints? Longer shot, but not out of the question with that Saints defense. Tampa at +165 against the Chargers? That’d be a solid bet. So, why am I going with the Giants? My brother is 25-5 in his picks the last two weeks. My picks all season long have been disgusting. I’m tipping my cap, figuring maybe he’s on to something, and hoping to ride the coattails. We’ll see what happens.