Bet the Mortgage: Week 13, 2014 NFL Best Bets

When things went bad for us in the point spread picks last season, it snowballed. One bad week would lead to another and before you knew it, we were scraping the bottom half of our bankrolls with a half a season left.

Week 12 presents a good sign for 2014. Coming off of our worst week of the year we combined to hit five of eight bets and both of us made profits.

I still haven’t recovered from the pounding, but Tony more than made up for his losses. And overall we’re still well into our hypothetical gambling town for profits for the season.

Here are the standings:

It’s Thanksgiving weekend. So we may be at a bit of a disadvantage, as we look forward to our respective food comas. But here goes anyway:

Andy: There are actually a couple lines this week that surprise me a bit. I think there are opportunities – normally it makes me nervous when I feel that way, but this season I’ve actually done alright when my hunches don’t line up with the oddsmakers’ beliefs. So here we go:

$1,000 – Pittsburgh (-4.5, -110) vs New Orleans – The Steelers are a bit maddening. They look great in blowing out Indianapolis but lose to Tampa and the Jets. But the Saints are in free fall, having lost three in a row at home – and that’s where they supposedly play their best ball. The NFC South is terrible – if this bet pulls off, I may just spend the rest of the season cashing in on non-division teams blowing these four teams out… in fact, stay tuned.

$800 – Miami (-7, +110) at NY Jets – I don’t think the Dolphins are a finished product yet, but I liked what I saw against Denver. They hung right with a more talented Denver team. Miami gets a Jets squad that is going back to the not-very-interesting Geno Smith at QB and closing in the end of Rex Ryan’s tenure. The Dolphins should be able to get up early and cruise – and I shouldn’t have a hard time giving an extra point to get the +110 payoff from 5dimes.eu as opposed to the -110 or -115 I could get for 6 to 6.5 points from other sites.

$1,000 – Arizona (-2.5, -110) at Atlanta – I don’t love that I am heavily invested in road teams this week, but I think there is a lot to like about Arizona, even minus Carson Palmer. Atlanta may be able to throw some, but Matt Ryan has suffered so much behind a putrid offensive line that I can’t see them scoring much against a good team – they’ve certainly struggled against some bad ones already. Plus, as mentioned, the Falcons are in the ugly NFC South and a bet against that division seems to pay as well as any savings account these days.

$400 – Oakland (+250 moneyline) at St. Louis – The Rams have had a tough season that started to go bad in the preseason when Sam Bradford was hurt again. They’ve played tough, but just don’t seem to have a lot of luck going their way. I was really impressed with the fight I saw from the under talented Raiders last week against Kansas City. They’ll have had 10 days to prepare for this game. And I think they’re going to pull the upset. Derek Carr, incidentally, looks so far like the best of the rookie QBs.

Tony: On a scale of George Washington to Vladamir Putin, how un-American am I if I say I’m actually not a huge fan of NFL games on Thanksgiving? They start too early, feature teams each year that generally bore me, are on while eating, and take two games off the Sunday slate for betting–and betting on Thursday games is tougher, in my opinion…and the lines today suck.

$2,000 – Miami Dolphins (-7.5, +110) at New York Jets – The Jets are bad and getting worse. The Dolphins actually have something to play for, and are significantly better. I’ll gladly give the extra half point for the +110 payout.

$1,000 – New England Patriots (+3, +105) at Green Bay Packers – I hope my betting against them doesn’t jinx it, but I have to hope that Tom Brady and the Patriots recent domination of opponents exposes the Packers defense for what it really is. And the Vikings showed that the Pack Attack can be slowed…

$1,000 – Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 44 (-110) – I almost put the Lions/Bears here (o/u at 47), but not sure I trust Jay Cutler to hold up his end of the bargain. So I’ll trust Mike Evans to continue his hot streak since Andy and I cut him in fantasy, and that the Bengals will continue to score with all their guys not on my teams.

$300 – Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+220 moneyline) – Not a lot of money line bets I love–if I was really in Vegas, I would probably be spreading some money out on several bets, rather than devoting even $300 on one game, but this would be one of those games. I also like the Chargers (+230, but traveling east), the Saints (+175), Cleveland (+130), and the Redskins (+405) on a longshot, with Colt McCoy replacing RG(D-minus).

For Week 13 straight up picks, click here.