Bet the Mortgage: Week 12, 2014 NFL Best Bets

It was probably a bit inevitable. Tony and I had combined to add nearly $17,000 to our hypothetical bankrolls throughout the first 10 weeks of the season, really without any major bad weeks along the way. Sure, we lost a few bucks here and there, but for the most part it’s been full pseed ahead.

In week 11 reality set in.

I was 0-4 and Tony was 1-3, and we collectively gave more than $5,000 hypothetical dollars back to the various sports books where we get our lines. Thankfully we were both playing from ahead, so we’re still in decent shape. We’ll get back on the horse in week 12 and hopefully ride home with more baskets full of pretend cash.

Here are the standings.

Andy: The temptation is there to start doubling bets to make up for what was lost last week. I’m trying to avoid that. I have to take a step back and realize I’m still playing with house money. That said, there are still a couple nice numbers out there this week and there’s no sense being too conservative with the hypothetical bankroll. So let’s go to town.

$1,500 – Green Bay (-10, +105) at Minnesota – I don’t like betting on Vikings games. They’re my home team and it sometimes colors the way I see those games. But this one’s pretty clear. Green Bay is stomping the crap out of everyone these days – they could have put 70 up on the Eagles last week. Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater is playing like a rookie QB. The Packers should have this won by halftime.

$750 – Arizona at Seattle (Under 42, -110) – The Cardinals are playing with a backup QB. The Seahawks just can’t seem to get it all together. These two teams have great defenses. It should be a low scoring game. Tony has a theory that this type of game almost always goes the other way. I am hoping he’s wrong.

$750 – Baltimore (+3, +105) at New Orleans – The last time I bet big against New Orleans at home it was when they played Green Bay. Against all logic, the Saints crushed the Pack that night. The Saints may do this to me again. But they aren’t playing well, having lost to the 49ers and Bengals at home in successive weeks. Can Baltimore make it a trio of home losses? I think so. The NFC South is terrible – it might be won by a 6-10 team. The Ravens aren’t great, but they’re a fair bit better than New Orleans.

$500 – Cleveland (+155 moneyline) at Atlanta – The Falcons are favored at home, but the NFC South participants have proven incapable of beating almost anyone outside of their division foes. Cleveland is young, improving and inconsistent – as shown by losses to Jacksonville and Houston. But the Browns are not a bad team. And with Josh Gordon back and the two-headed tandem of Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell now entrenched as the top RBs, they should be able to outscore a bad Atlanta team.

Tony: The terrible week was inevitable. But we charge on, looking to end the season on an aggressive streak that will lead to the goal of doubling our bankroll—or break us in trying. I generally dislike making my bets this early, as I like the odds to settle and the payouts to start moving a bit more as the books try to even things out. But what the heck, last week didn’t work any better.

$2,500 – New England Patriots (-7.5, +110) vs. Detroit Lions – The Lions have been a much better team than I expected this year—but so have the Patriots, and they appear to be on a roll. And they’re at home. And I still think Detroit is doing it somewhat with smoke and mirrors. They’ve got a solid front end of the defense, but Tom Brady and the Patriots have so many ways to beat you—last week it was 50 shades of (Jonas) Gray, but while everyone runs to grab him off waivers, there’s no guarantee he’ll get a carry in Bill Belichek’s offense.

$1,000 – Cincinnati Bengals (+1, +105) at Houston Texans – Am I really comfortable with this bet? No way. But getting a positive payout for a bet that two other online casinos on the site I use to find lines are still paying -105 for?  I’ll take the shot.

$1,500 – Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Over 48.5 (-110) – Here I go, breaking my rule on including the Vikings in a bet—but I will on occasion include them in an over/under that makes sense. And this one just makes sense. The first time they met, these teams combined for 52 points, in a lopsided 42-10 Pack win. And that was when there were still some concerns over the Packers play this season. They’re 4-1 since that matchup, and in the last two games have surpassed this over on their own.

$300 – Jacksonville Jaguars (+800 moneyline) over Indianapolis Colts – There are lots of intriguing games on the moneyline this week, but I’m going for the homerun here. Logic says the Jaguars can’t win, but that logic has been brutal all season long. It seems like every couple of years, the Jags shock the Colts when the Colts are looking ahead or just not ready for the challenge. True, they may have been jolted awake by last week’s big loss the Patriots, but with a fairly lax schedule to close out the season, the Colts might already be thinking ahead of themselves…

For straight up week 12 picks, click here.