Bet the Mortgage: Week 11, 2015 – Best Bets

This season just keeps getting weirder and weirder. Both of us took another step back last week – Andy by a few hundred bucks. Tony by most of what was left of his imaginary bankroll.

So … Andy retains the lead in this contest, albeit a rather embarrassing one – between the two of them, they’ve lost about 75 percent of the imaginary budget they were allotted heading into the season.

Here are the standings:

And here we go with another week of banging our heads against a wall.

Tony

Well, looks like I’m going to have to talk the imaginary concierge at my imaginary sports book, and see if I can get an imaginary extension of my imaginary line. Hopefully imaginary Guido doesn’t come break my knee caps…

$1,000 – New England (-7.5, Even) vs Buffalo – The Bills are back in playoff contention…just in time to run into the Patriots. Even without Julian Edelmen, I’m starting to wonder just who is going to be able to knock off the Patriots this year

$1,000 – Cincinnati (+5, -110) at Arizona – Five is a pretty big number for a team that was just knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten. Arizona is good, but are they that good?

$500 – San Francisco at Seattle: Over 40 (-110) – This is a do the opposite bet…there’s no way either team scores more than 10 points, right? So logically, bet they’ll both go over 20. Oh, hi there Guido…

$300 – Indianapolis (+205 money line) vs Atlanta – I don’t know that I agree with this one, but…how else am I going to keep Guido satisfied, if I don’t go for some blue chips?

Andy

I’m still not getting a real good feel for what’s going on this season. Most of this week’s games confuse the hell out of me. But I found a couple I feel pretty good about. I apologize in advance for the lengthy write-ups, but I’m feeling a bit wordy tonight.

$2,000 – Denver (+1.5, -105) at Chicago – Let me get this straight. Denver starts the season 7-0 and everyone is ready to anoint them the biggest challengers to a New England Super Bowl repeat. Then they have a couple bad games – one against a desperate, motivated Indianapolis team and another against a division foe that also has a solid defense – and now the Broncos are the underdog to a plucky-but-not-very-good Bears team? Brock Osweiler should provide a moderate upgrade from the play of Peyton Manning most of the season – he’s at least healthy and able to throw a football in a way that does not look like a shot put. The Denver defense will likely not have to overcome 12 turnovers. Chicago has played better the last couple games without a doubt. But this is still not a good team. I not only see this as a Denver win, but as a Denver blowout. Let’s call it Angry Denver 30-10. And a bonus prediction: Brock Osweiler will Wally Pipp Peyton Manning in this game. (So, in all likelihood, you should bet your mortgage on Chicago.)

$750 – Washington (+7, -105) at Carolina – This may be a bit of a long shot, but here’s my theory. The only team I think is actually even close to good enough to go undefeated this season is New England. Carolina is playing very well, particularly on defense, but eventually, most unbeatens get upset – and often by teams they should beat. It happened to Denver against Indianapolis. It happened to Cincinnati against Houston. I don’t think the Redskins beat Carolina. But four of their five losses this season have come against playoff contenders. And they are playing very well of late, particularly on offense – they put up 31 against Tampa on Oct. 25 and 47 last week against the Saints. Forgive them for the 10 point performance in the middle of those games – they were playing the Patriots. I think they give the Panthers a ballgame.

$750 – Baltimore (-2, -105) vs St. Louis – I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Ravens this season, but if the Rams are desperate enough to call on Case Keenum to come in and make a start here, they must be feeling awfully desperate. Ravens will salvage some pride in the second half of the season.

$500 – Indianapolis (+205 money line) at Atlanta – I am a fan of Dan Quinn and the well-coached Falcons got off to a surprisingly solid start this season. But they’ve lost three of the last four to New Orleans, Tampa Bay and San Francisco – three teams that will be drafting in the top half-dozen slots of the 2016 draft in May. They’ll be good in a couple years when Quinn has a chance to collect some more talent. Right now they are a fraud. The Colts, meanwhile, showed up big before the bye against Denver. I don’t think this team is going to return to the dominance that took it to the AFC Championship game last season, but I do think they’ll get back to a level in the second half of the season that allows them to be a non-embarrassment as a division champion. Matt Hasselbeck showed early in the season he can play well enough to win. Not only does Indy win this game, they do so comfortably.