Bet the mortgage: Week 11, 2014 NFL Best Bets

Well, the momentum slowed down a bit, but with the help of a weird line Tony found, we both managed to make at least enough for a nice hypothetical dinner with our pointspread picks last week.

The line in question came from the Miami/Detroit game, where Tony found Miami a five-point underdog – with a return of +210. Those numbers are typically reserved for moneyline bet, so I’m guessing the line was a typo, but he found it, he gets it. So even though he only hit one of four picks, he scored big on that one – thus a $100 profit for the week. I split mine, blowing a $1,500 chunk on Pittsburgh, but making up for it with reliables in Green Bay and Denver. So I was up $300 for the week.

Here are the standings:

Andy: These are the weeks when it would be dangerous for me to actually be in Las Vegas with a wad of cash. There are a lot of lines I feel good about – and usually when I feel good about lines, it blows up in my face. But this is all hypothetical. So what the hell.

$1,500 – Denver (-10, +105) at St. Louis – I felt pretty good about betting the Broncos last week and I feel pretty much the same here again. The Rams aren’t a bad team, but Denver is built for dry, fast, indoor football. They got a wakeup call in New England a couple weeks back and this team is turning it up a notch. Bad deal for the Rams.

$1,000 – Denver vs St. Louis: Over 51 (-105) – The totals in Denver’s last six games have been: 58, 64, 56, 59, 48 and 61. The only one that wouldn’t have broken this number was the game against the broken Jets. Last week Denver took the first quarter off and still scored 41. This will be another opportunity for Peyton Manning to snub Brock Osweiler’s attempts to get in the game late. St. Louis only has to score about 14 of these points for me to feel fairly comfortable that they’ll break 51.

$750 – Seattle (+1, +105) at Kansas City – This one makes me a bit uncomfortable, but I think Seattle has found itself. I’m a tad concerned by the loss of defensive tackle Brandon Mebane, but Kansas City rarely uses its combination of Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis as effectively as it should. I think this will probably be a low scoring, physical game, but I like the Seahawks to come out ahead.

$400 – Oakland (+470 moneyline) at San Diego – The Raiders aren’t going to lose every game. And the Chargers weren’t playing well heading into the bye. I wouldn’t say I’m 50-50 on this actually happening, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me if Oakland somehow got San Diego to lay an egg.

Tony:

$1,500 – Denver (-10, +105) at St. Louis – If I’m playing the Broncos at this point in the season, I almost want to go to Denver, so at least there’s a chance it’s a cold weather game. Taking on Peyton Manning in a dome, in a non-playoff situation?  That’s suicide, man.

$750 – Green Bay (-7, +120) vs. Philadelphia – So I wasn’t exactly spot on last week, but it’s going to take more than one game to convince me that Mark Sanchez is suddenly a competent NFL quarterback just because he plays for Chip Kelly. True, he couldn’t have asked for much better or a matchup than the Packers swiss cheese defense.

$500 – Detroit at Arizona: Over 41 (-110) – It should be a good game, and while both teams have solid defenses and I don’t think it will be hugely high scoring, I think with these two passing attacks, they SHOULD put the game into the 20’s. Even with former Lion Drew Stanton leading the Cardinals.

$500 – Seattle (Moneyline: +115) at Kansas City – There are a few attractive, low payout upsets this week—Minnesota (+140), New England (+140) are just behind the Seahawks in my book, for likeliness to win.  If I really were in Vegas, and going beyond the four game bet, I would probably even throw a little down on the Raiders (they’re going to win at some point…right?) at +450. But even at this little payout, I’m shocked Seattle isn’t the favorite in Kansas City, or at least that it’s not a pick’em game.

For straight up picks for week 11, click here.